Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupKALSHIElections

Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

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Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

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$4.24K

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Will the number of Ohio Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of Ohio Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	55%
Will the number of New Hampshire Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 16 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	49%
Will the number of Idaho Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	48%
Will the number of South Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 83 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	47%
Will the number of North Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 72 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	45%
Will the number of Utah State Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	45%
Will the number of Ohio House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 60 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	43%
Will the number of Missouri House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 109 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	43%
Will the number of Florida House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 80 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	43%
Will the number of Missouri Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 23 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	39%
Will the number of Georgia State Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 38 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	38%
Will the number of North Carolina Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 30 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	36%
Will the number of Iowa Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 34 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	36%
Will the number of Florida Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 27 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	35%
Will the number of Arizona House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 40 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	34%
Will the number of Arizona State Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	33%
Will the number of Wisconsin State Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 22 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	32%
Will the number of Montana Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 34 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	28%
Will the number of Iowa House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 67 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	28%
Will the number of Texas Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 21 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	26%
Will the number of Kansas House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 84 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	13%

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55%

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$4.24K

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About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 If the number X seats held by Republicans is at least Y after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Republican Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general election results are certified. Every seat on the 2026 ballot is attributed to its certified winner, and every other seat to the party designation the state election authority recorded for the winner of that seat's most recent gener

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 3, 2026

If the number X seats held by Republicans is at least Y after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Republican Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general election results are certified. Every seat on the 2026 ballot is attributed to its certified winner, and every other seat to the party designation the state election authority recorded for the winner of that seat's most recent gener

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of Wisconsin State Senate seats held by Republicans is at least 22 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Republican Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general electi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of Wisconsin State Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 22 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of Utah State Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of Texas Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 21 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of South Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 83 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of Ohio Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 55.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of Ohio House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 60 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of New Hampshire Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 16 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the number of North Carolina Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 30 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the number of North Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 72 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the number of Montana Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 34 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the number of Missouri Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 23 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the number of Missouri House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 109 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the number of Kansas House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 84 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the number of Idaho Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the number of Iowa Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 34 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the number of Iowa House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 67 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the number of Georgia State Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 38 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the number of Florida Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 27 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the number of Florida House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 80 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the number of Arizona State Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the number of Arizona House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 40 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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KALSHIElections

Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

Volume$4.24K

Markets21

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KALSHI

Will the number of Ohio Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 55.0¢No 45.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Ohio Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of Ohio Senate seats held by Republicans is at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Republican Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general election results

KALSHI

Will the number of New Hampshire Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 16 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of New Hampshire Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 16 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of New Hampshire Senate seats held by Republicans is at least 16 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Republican Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general election

KALSHI

Will the number of Idaho Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.5¢No 52.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Idaho Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of Idaho Senate seats held by Republicans is at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Republican Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general election results

KALSHI

Will the number of South Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 83 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.5¢No 53.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of South Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 83 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of South Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans is at least 83 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Republican Party when the chamber's November 3, 20

KALSHI

Will the number of North Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 72 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 45.0¢No 55.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of North Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 72 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of North Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans is at least 72 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Republican Party when the chamber's November 3, 20

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ustAQL" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?"></iframe>

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Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

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Will the number of Ohio Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Events (1)

Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

Markets (21)

Will the number of Ohio Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Ohio Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of New Hampshire Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 16 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of New Hampshire Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 16 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Idaho Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Idaho Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of South Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 83 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of South Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 83 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of North Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 72 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of North Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 72 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Will the number of Ohio Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

Will the number of Ohio Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Ohio Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of New Hampshire Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 16 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of New Hampshire Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 16 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Idaho Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Idaho Senate seats held by Republicans be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of South Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 83 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of South Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 83 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of North Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 72 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of North Carolina House of Representatives seats held by Republicans be at least 72 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

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