$2.31K
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$2.31K
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8
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2027 If X is awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets are currently assigning a low probability to Lee Greenwood receiving the Presidential Medal of Freedom before 2027. On Kalshi, the leading contract for this specific outcome is trading at approximately 31 cents, implying the market sees roughly a 31% chance. This price suggests the event is viewed as possible, particularly given the political context, but remains an underdog outcome far from a consensus expectation. Trading volume is thin at around $2,000 across related markets, indicating limited speculative interest or conviction.
The primary factor supporting the 31% probability is Lee Greenwood's status as a culturally symbolic figure closely associated with a specific political base. His song "God Bless the USA" has been used as a campaign anthem, most notably by former President Donald Trump. Historically, the Presidential Medal of Freedom has been awarded for both bipartisan achievement and political patronage. The odds reflect a scenario where, should Trump win the 2024 election, Greenwood could be a plausible candidate for the honor during the subsequent administration, aligning with past awards to political allies and cultural icons.
Conversely, the low probability reflects significant countervailing factors. The award traditionally recognizes a broader spectrum of public service, arts, science, and athletics. Nominating a figure as politically polarizing as Greenwood could be seen as overly divisive, potentially limiting its appeal even within a supportive administration. Furthermore, the timeline is constrained, requiring the award to be finalized before January 1, 2027.
The most significant catalyst for this market will be the result of the November 2024 U.S. presidential election. A Trump victory would likely cause this contract's probability to surge, as it would open a direct pathway for the award during the 2025-2026 period. Conversely, a Biden re-election would likely depress the odds to near-zero, making the outcome improbable before 2027. Secondary catalysts include any official statements or leaks from a potential new administration in early 2025 regarding its intentions for the award. The market may also react to changes in Greenwood's public profile or health. Given the thin liquidity, any emerging news could cause sharp price movements.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on whether a specific individual, designated as X, will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom before January 1, 2027. The Presidential Medal of Freedom is the highest civilian award in the United States, bestowed by the President to individuals who have made especially meritorious contributions to the security or national interests of the United States, to world peace, or to cultural or other significant public or private endeavors. The market resolves to 'Yes' if X is awarded the medal within the specified timeframe, with an early closure mechanism triggered immediately upon the award's announcement. This creates a time-sensitive speculative instrument tied directly to presidential discretion and the political calendar. Interest in this market stems from its function as a proxy for gauging the current administration's favor, political alliances, and legacy-building priorities, as the award is a powerful symbolic gesture. Analysts and observers monitor potential recipients as indicators of shifting political winds, cultural values the White House wishes to elevate, and relationships the President seeks to honor or strengthen. The identity of X is central, as the likelihood of the award depends on their field (politics, arts, science, activism), their connection to the sitting President, and their perceived national contribution. The market's outcome hinges on a singular, definitive presidential action, making it a clear binary event with significant political and symbolic implications.
The Presidential Medal of Freedom was established by President John F. Kennedy in 1963, evolving from the earlier Medal of Freedom created by President Harry S. Truman in 1945. Kennedy intended it to recognize distinguished civilian service in peacetime, and the first recipients, including Pope John XXIII and Marian Anderson, were awarded by President Lyndon B. Johnson in December 1963, following Kennedy's assassination. The award's history reflects the evolving priorities and personalities of successive administrations. For instance, President Ronald Reagan awarded it to 86 individuals over two terms, often highlighting conservative icons and Cold War allies, while President Barack Obama's 115 awards emphasized diversity, science, and civil rights. A significant precedent is the posthumous award, which has been granted to figures like civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. (1977) and astronaut John Glenn (2012), showing that the honor is not limited to the living. The timing of awards is also politically strategic. Presidents often present clusters of medals in ceremonial events, sometimes in their final year in office as part of their legacy, as seen with President Donald Trump's January 2021 ceremony for 24 recipients. This historical pattern of batch awards and legacy-focused presentations directly informs predictions about when and why a specific individual might be honored before the 2027 deadline.
The awarding of the Presidential Medal of Freedom is a significant act of state symbolism with tangible political and cultural ramifications. It represents the highest endorsement the U.S. government can give to a civilian, instantly elevating the recipient's public stature and cementing their place in the national narrative. The choice of recipient signals the values and priorities the current administration wishes to champion, whether in science, arts, public service, or social justice. This can influence policy debates, shape historical legacy, and validate certain cultural movements over others. For the recipient, the medal brings immense prestige, potentially boosting their influence, the visibility of their cause, or the commercial success of their work. It can also spark controversy if the public perceives the choice as politically motivated or if the recipient's legacy is contested, leading to public debates about national values and presidential judgment. The decision thus ripples beyond the ceremony, affecting the recipient's field, related institutions, and the public's perception of presidential leadership.
As of late 2024, the political landscape is defined by the recent 2024 presidential election. The identity and policy agenda of the incoming or re-elected President will be the primary determinant of medal recipients through 2026. The White House typically does not announce its selection process or shortlist in advance, maintaining an element of surprise. However, media outlets and political commentators frequently speculate on potential candidates based on current events, anniversaries of historic achievements, and individuals who have recently gained national prominence. The focus is on which figures from the worlds of politics, science (particularly related to ongoing public health or climate issues), civil rights, and arts are being informally championed by advisors and allies of the administration.
The President of the United States has sole and complete discretion to choose recipients of the Presidential Medal of Freedom. While the White House staff may solicit and vet recommendations, the final decision is a personal one made by the President.
No, the Presidential Medal of Freedom cannot be formally revoked. Unlike military awards, there is no established legal or regulatory process for rescinding the civilian honor once it has been bestowed.
There is no statutory limit on the number of Presidential Medals of Freedom awarded each year. The quantity varies significantly by administration and presidential discretion, ranging from zero in some years to over twenty in others.
The Presidential Medal of Freedom is an executive branch award conferred solely by the President, while the Congressional Gold Medal is the highest civilian award from the legislative branch, requiring co-sponsorship and passage of legislation by both houses of Congress.
The award is typically given to civilians, but it can also be awarded to members of the military for exceptional non-combat service. It can be awarded posthumously, and non-U.S. citizens are also eligible, as demonstrated by awards to figures like Mother Teresa and Angela Merkel.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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8 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Who will earn the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026? (Lee Greenwood) | Kalshi | 31% |
Who will earn the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026? (Sean Hannity) | Kalshi | 27% |
Who will earn the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026? (Dana White) | Kalshi | 27% |
Who will earn the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026? (Kid Rock) | Kalshi | 22% |
Who will earn the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026? (Elon Musk) | Kalshi | 18% |
Who will earn the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026? (Sylvester Stallone) | Kalshi | 11% |
Who will earn the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026? (Dan Scavino) | Kalshi | 11% |
Who will earn the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026? (Bill Belichick) | Kalshi | 10% |
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