This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

Name: Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.61M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

Vol

$2.61M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.61M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.61M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Poly	20%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

20%

Top Probability

$2.61M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $214.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.6K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 12.89)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $214.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics