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Hawaii Governor margin of victory

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Hawaii Governor margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 14 percentage points?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 14 percentage points?	Kalshi	93%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 17 percentage points?	Kalshi	87%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 20 percentage points?	Kalshi	80%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 23 percentage points?	Kalshi	71%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 26 percentage points?	Kalshi	62%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 29 percentage points?	Kalshi	53%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 32 percentage points?	Kalshi	44%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 35 percentage points?	Kalshi	34%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 38 percentage points?	Kalshi	24%

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About This Event

Hawaii Governor If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Hawaii by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Hawaii Governor margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Hawaii Governor

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Hawaii by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Hawaii by 38 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democra"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 38 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 35 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 32 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 29 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 26 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 23 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 20 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 17 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 14 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Hawaii Governor margin of victory

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 14 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.9¢No 7.1¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 14 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Hawaii by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democra

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 17 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 17 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Hawaii by 17 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democra

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 20 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 20 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Hawaii by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democra

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 23 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.0¢No 29.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 23 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Hawaii by 23 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democra

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 26 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.0¢No 38.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 26 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Hawaii by 26 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democra

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Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 14 percentage points?

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Hawaii Governor margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 14 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 14 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 17 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 17 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 20 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 20 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 23 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 23 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 26 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 26 percentage points?

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Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 14 percentage points?

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Hawaii Governor margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 14 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 14 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 17 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 17 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 20 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 20 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 23 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 23 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 26 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Hawaii be at least 26 percentage points?

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