GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?

Total Volume

$0.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?	Kalshi	54%
Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2031?	Kalshi	52%
Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	49%
Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2029?	Kalshi	46%
Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	38%
Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

MDMA for PTSD If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application, NDA, or Biologics License Application, BLA, For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA, sNDA, or supplemental BLA, sBLA, for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug App

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** MDMA for PTSD

If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application, NDA, or Biologics License Application, BLA, For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA, sNDA, or supplemental BLA, sBLA, for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug App

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing before Jan 1, 2032, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as:

For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-mar"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2032): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2031?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?

Volume$0.00

Markets6

6 of 6

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.5¢No 45.5¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?

If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing before Jan 1, 2032, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-mar

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2031?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 52.0¢No 48.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2031?

If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-mar

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?

If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-mar

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.0¢No 54.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2029?

If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-mar

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2028?

If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-mar

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

43¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/v64wmQ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?

Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?

Markets (6)

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2031?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2031?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2029?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2029?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2028?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2031?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2031?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2029?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2029?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2028?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget