Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Polymarket event asks which candidate will become the next Magistrate of Yunlin County through the Taiwanese local election. The rules state that "Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026" [1]. The market will resolve "according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yunlin County as a result of this election," and "[t]emporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered" [1].

The rules also set a fallback. If the result is not known, or no candidate has been elected, "by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 'Other'" [1]. That deadline is a contract rule, not an announced event date. Resolution follows "a consensus of credible reporting," and if that is ambiguous, the official results from the Central Election Commission govern [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-29T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is when the contract closes for listing purposes, which is separate from when the outcome is resolved.

Reading the snapshot

The supplied observation was taken at 21:00:05 UTC on October 15, 2026. Retrieval happened later that day. Both times describe this snapshot only, not live conditions.

Two separate contracts appear in the sample:

• Chang Chia-chun, Yes at 0.815 and No at 0.185 [1].
• Liu Chien-kuo, Yes at 0.115 and No at 0.885 [1].

Each contract's Yes and No prices are quoted separately. The two Yes prices should not be averaged or combined into a single ranking, because they belong to different contracts within one event. The sample includes two of two saved markets, with no partial sample flag [1]. The sample warning still notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].

These figures are price snapshots. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The supplied data does not include volume or order book depth, so it cannot indicate liquidity or how many traders are involved. A difference between prices on different contracts is not, by itself, an opportunity.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show a price for "Other" or for any candidate outside these two contracts, so the remaining probability in the snapshot cannot be assigned to a specific outcome. The evidence also gives no explanation for why prices are where they are, and no news about the race. Readers should check the resolution wording, the listed close time, and the official Central Election Commission results before relying on any reading of this market.

References

1. Polymarket: Yunlin County Magistrate Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.