GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Closest Senate Race?

Name: Closest Senate Race?
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$36.61K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Closest Senate Race?

Vol

$36.61K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $36.61K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $36.61K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

16 markets tracked

Will Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	17%
Will Iowa have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	12%
Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	11%
Will Maine have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Alaska have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	9%
Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	8%
Will North Carolina have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	7%
Will Nebraska have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	7%
Will Colorado have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Virginia have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Montana have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Florida (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Georgia have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	2%
Will New Hampshire have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	2%
Will New Mexico have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	2%
Will Minnesota have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

17%

Top Probability

$36.61K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Closest Senate Race?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (60 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. 

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of vali"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $36.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $148.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alaska have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Montana have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Colorado have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $716
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will New Mexico have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $160
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Nebraska have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $293
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.4% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Iowa have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Minnesota have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.3% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $8.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.6% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Georgia have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $824
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Florida (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $253
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Virginia have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will North Carolina have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $851
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.6% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will New Hampshire have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $659
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Maine have the closest Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics