$185.20K
2
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$185.20K
2
111
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Calder Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction markets currently price Matthew Schaefer as the overwhelming favorite to win the 2025-26 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy. On Polymarket, shares for Schaefer trade at approximately 82 cents, implying an 82% probability of victory. A price this high indicates the market views his candidacy as nearly certain, with other contenders collectively seen as longshots. The "No" outcome for Schaefer trades around 18 cents. Cross-platform, Kalshi shows slightly higher prices for Schaefer, creating an 11% spread that suggests marginally more confidence there.
Two primary factors are solidifying Schaefer's frontrunner status. First, his draft pedigree is paramount: Schaefer is the consensus top prospect for the 2025 NHL Entry Draft and is expected to be selected first overall. Historically, the Calder Trophy has a strong correlation with high draft position and immediate elite deployment. Second, his projected team context is critical. The team holding the first pick will likely be a rebuilding club, such as the Chicago Blackhawks or San Jose Sharks, which can guarantee Schaefer top-line minutes and power-play time from his first game, maximizing his statistical output.
The key variable is injury. An extended absence during his rookie campaign would immediately crater his odds, as trophy voters heavily prioritize games played and cumulative statistics. A second risk is an unexpected breakout from another elite prospect, such as 2024's second overall pick, who could seize a more prominent role on a competitive team. The market will react sharply to preseason performances and early-season point production in October 2026, which will either validate his favorite status or introduce new contenders into the conversation.
The 11% price spread between Polymarket (lower) and Kalshi (higher) for Schaefer is notable. This discrepancy likely stems from platform-specific liquidity and trader demographics. Polymarket's global, crypto-native user base may be applying a slight discount for platform or regulatory risk, while Kalshi's US-regulated, traditional finance-leaning audience might price with more conventional certainty. This creates a narrow arbitrage opportunity, though it requires managing counterparty risk across platforms and the long resolution timeline. The spread may converge as resolution approaches and liquidity increases.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Calder Memorial Trophy is awarded annually to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the National Hockey League. For the 2025-26 NHL season, this prediction market specifically tracks whether a designated player, 'X', will win this prestigious rookie award. The trophy, first presented in 1937, is named for Frank Calder, the NHL's first president, and represents one of the league's most coveted individual honors for young talent entering the professional ranks. The outcome is determined by a vote of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association at the conclusion of the regular season, based on a player's performance, impact, and overall contribution to their team. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if player X is officially announced as the winner, with provisions for early closure upon that event. Interest in this market stems from the high-profile nature of the award, which often highlights future NHL stars and generates significant debate among fans, analysts, and bettors regarding rookie performances and potential. The evaluation for the 2025-26 season will be particularly scrutinized as it follows the historic 2023-24 rookie class featuring Connor Bedard, and will include players drafted in 2024 and 2025 who make their NHL debuts that season, creating a dynamic and unpredictable field.
The Calder Memorial Trophy has a storied history dating back to the 1936-37 NHL season, when it was first awarded to Syl Apps of the Toronto Maple Leafs. It was originally known simply as the Calder Trophy until it was renamed in memory of Frank Calder following his death in 1943. The award has consistently served as a bellwether for future NHL greatness, with winners including legendary players like Bobby Orr (1967), Mario Lemieux (1985), and Alex Ovechkin (2006). A significant precedent was set in the 1992-93 season when Teemu Selanne scored a rookie-record 76 goals and 132 points, a standard that has defined exceptional offensive rookie campaigns ever since. More recently, the eligibility rules were formally clarified, stating a player cannot have played more than 25 games in any single preceding season nor in six or more games in each of any two preceding seasons. The 2023-24 season featured one of the most anticipated races in years, headlined by Connor Bedard, which has renewed intense focus on the award and its future winners. Historically, first overall draft picks have won the award 18 times, demonstrating the strong correlation between top draft pedigree and rookie success.
The Calder Trophy race matters significantly because it is a primary indicator of incoming talent that will shape the NHL's competitive landscape for the next decade. Winning the award can dramatically increase a player's marketability, leading to endorsement deals and establishing them as a franchise cornerstone, which has direct economic implications for the player, their team, and the league's marketing efforts. For teams, having a Calder contender often signals a successful rebuild or a bright future, boosting ticket sales and fan engagement during what might otherwise be a losing season. Beyond immediate economics, the award has substantial social and cultural impact within hockey communities, fueling debates, driving fantasy hockey and sports betting markets, and creating narratives that engage casual and hardcore fans alike. The identification of a 'next superstar' through the Calder Trophy helps maintain the league's narrative continuity and global growth, especially as it markets its young stars internationally.
As of the lead-up to the 2025-26 season, the Calder race is in its formative stage. The 2024 NHL Entry Draft, held in June 2024, has determined the new cohort of elite prospects eligible for the 2025-26 rookie class. Macklin Celebrini, drafted first overall, is the presumptive favorite if he begins his NHL career that season. Other top 2024 draftees and potential 2025 draftees, along with European players fulfilling existing contracts, will constitute the field. The hockey analytics and prospecting community is actively evaluating the potential impact of these players based on their post-draft development in junior, collegiate, or professional leagues during the 2024-25 season. No official candidates or nominees exist until the 2025-26 NHL regular season concludes in April 2026.
A player is eligible if they have not played more than 25 games in any single preceding NHL season, and have not played in six or more games in each of any two preceding NHL seasons. Additionally, they must be under 26 years of age by September 15 of the season they are eligible for.
The winner is selected by a poll of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association (PHWA) at the end of the regular season. Members submit a ballot ranking their top five choices, with a point system (10 for 1st, 7 for 2nd, 5 for 3rd, 3 for 4th, 1 for 5th) determining the winner.
Yes, it has happened several times. A notable recent example is Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar, who won the Calder Trophy for the 2019-20 season and then won the Stanley Cup with the Avalanche in the 2021-22 season.
Goaltenders are fully eligible and have won the award 12 times. Their candidacy is evaluated similarly, based on proficiency and impact, though voters historically have shown a slight preference for high-scoring forwards, making a goalie win a notable event.
Yes, previous professional experience in leagues other than the NHL, such as the AHL, KHL, or SHL, does not affect Calder eligibility. Only NHL games played count against the eligibility thresholds.
Sergei Makarov won the award in 1990 at age 31 while playing for the Calgary Flames. His win under older eligibility rules led to the implementation of the current age restriction the following season.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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2025-26 NHL season If X wins the NHL Calder Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Calder Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Matthew Schaefer wins the NHL Calder Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Calder Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official infor
If Axel Sandin-Pellikka wins the NHL Calder Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Calder Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official infor
If Alex Bump wins the NHL Calder Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Calder Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official infor
If Ivan Demidov wins the NHL Calder Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Calder Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official infor
If Gabe Perreault wins the NHL Calder Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Calder Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official infor
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Polymarket
$139.02K
Kalshi
$46.18K
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