Delivery app downloads array index in November 2026
K 6.6K contracts
1
11
K 6.6K contracts
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 100 at 98.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 10098.5%
- Above 10592.5%
- Above 11055.5%
- Above 11551.5%
- Above 12046.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 6.6K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether the Carbon Arc Order Delivery Apps Array value for November 2026 will be above a given threshold [1]. The array is "the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices." At listing, its members were Uber Eats, DoorDash, Grubhub and Instacart, each weighted 25% [1]. Each constituent index is 100 when its measured value equals the same month of the previous year, so a reading above 100 indicates year-over-year growth in the array's measure [1].
The resolution value is recorded "at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of that month," and "later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value" [1]. Under that wording, the November value would be recorded in early December. The market's listed end date field reads Dec 15, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC, while the source states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. These differ, so readers should rely on the rule text and the provider's own listing rather than assuming either date is the settlement moment. The rules also say the market "will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1]. No release date appears in the evidence.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC and retrieved at Nov 13, 2026, 1:07 AM UTC. It is a record of quoted prices at that observation time, not a live reading. The sample includes 11 markets from one event, all of them in the full saved set, with no partial sample flag [1].
Within this single event, the Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The "above 100" contract is priced at 0.985 for Yes, the "above 110" contract at 0.555, the "above 120" contract at 0.465, and the "above 140" contract at 0.12. The "above 145" and "above 150" contracts are each at 0.025 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because the thresholds belong to one event, comparing them side by side is reasonable, but they should not be combined with prices from other providers or events.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it does not describe trading activity or the number of participants. Volume and liquidity are not supplied in the summary for interpretation here. The source does not report the current value of the array, any revisions, or any recent developments in the delivery sector. The listing's close time is unclear from the evidence, and the early-expiry clause depends on an economic data release whose timing is not given [1].
References
- Kalshi: Delivery app downloads array index in November 2026. Provider data observed Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 13, 2026 UTCThis article was written from an earlier market snapshot and may be out of date. Use the dated market data and provider rules above for current information.
Overview
This is a Kalshi event titled "Delivery app downloads array index in November 2026." Each market in the event asks whether the Carbon Arc Order Delivery Apps Array for November 2026 will be above a particular threshold. The rules say the market resolves to Yes if the value is above the threshold X named in each contract [1]. The saved markets in this event use thresholds from 100 to 150, in steps of 5 [1]. The array is the reference value the contract settles on. The rules describe it as the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices, with Uber Eats, DoorDash, Grubhub and Instacart each weighted 25% at listing [1]. Each constituent index is set to 100 when its measured value equals the same month of the previous year, so a reading above 100 indicates that the measured value is higher than the year-earlier level for the array's members on average [1]. The rules state that the reference is Carbon Arc's published full-month array level [1]. The contract's resolution timing is set out separately from the market data. The rules say the value for the full month is recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of that month, and that later corrections or revisions do not affect the recorded value [1]. For November 2026, that means the recording point falls in early December 2026. The market data also lists an end date of 2026-12-15T06:30:00Z for each market, but the rules do not describe that field as an announced event date, so it should be read only as a listed date in the provider data [1]. The rules also say the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. A price in this data is a snapshot of the Yes and No outcomes for one threshold at the time the data was observed. It is not an executable quote and not a verified probability [1]. Across the saved thresholds, the Yes prices in this snapshot generally decline as the threshold rises, which is a description of the ladder shape rather than a forecast of the index. Each threshold is a separate contract, so differences between them should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity on their own. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying companies [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single monthly reading of a composite index for delivery app activity, built from year-over-year changes for four named companies [1]. Because each contract is a threshold on that one value, the set of thresholds in this event gives a ladder of outcomes for the same reading. The rules define the settlement value precisely, including the recording time and the treatment of later revisions, which matters for anyone reading the contract as a claim about the reported figure rather than about any single company [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-10 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome require in these markets?
Each market resolves to Yes if the recorded November 2026 array value is above the threshold named in that market [1].
Which value is used for settlement, and when is it recorded?
The rules say the full-month Carbon Arc array level is recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the month ends, and later corrections or revisions will not affect that recorded value [1].
How is the array calculated?
The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices. At listing, the members were Uber Eats, DoorDash, Grubhub and Instacart, each weighted 25%, and each index is 100 when its measured value equals the same month of the previous year [1].
Are the prices in this data probabilities?
The prices are snapshots from a specific observation time. They are not executable quotes and not verified probabilities [1].
Is Kalshi connected to the companies in the array?
Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying companies [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Streaming app downloads array index in November 2026
K 35.3K contracts
AI app downloads array index in November 2026
K 23.6K contracts
Rideshare app downloads array index in November 2026
K 13.4K contracts
Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads in November 2026
K 65.1K contracts
Fast food credit card spend array index in November 2026
K 0 contracts
DoorDash app downloads in November 2026
K 15.1K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
