This PredictPedia contract asks whether a total internet blackout will occur in Iran by the listed end time of 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026 [1]. Under the contract rules, a Yes outcome requires that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred fall to 1.0% or less of the last four weeks' maximum for at least six consecutive hourly data points [1]. The contract specifies that the Max for each data point is the Max figure Cloudflare uses in its chart [1]. Only the first of those consecutive hourly data points must fall before the resolution time, and the market can remain open until the full sequence is observed [1]. The contract's primary resolution source is the Traffic trends chart for Iran on Cloudflare Radar, covering the last four weeks [1]. The rules name a fallback only if that source becomes permanently unavailable, in which case a consensus of credible reporting may be used [1]. The contract is therefore tied to a measured traffic threshold rather than to a general judgment about whether an outage occurred. The contract appears in the Politics category and is part of a provider event titled "Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?" [1]. The provider lists it as active [1]. The December 31, 2026 date is the listed end time of the contract. It is a closing point for trading and resolution, not an announced event or scheduled government action. The contract's wording refers to a blackout defined by traffic measurements. It does not define a blackout by official orders, by press descriptions, or by the number of users affected. Readers should keep the measurement definition in mind when comparing the contract to past events described in news and encyclopedia sources.

Historical Context

Wikipedia pages on internet shutdowns in Iran describe two earlier episodes. The 2019 Internet blackout in Iran was described as a week-long total shutdown of the Internet in Iran [3]. It was ordered by the Supreme National Security Council and imposed by the Ministry of ICT, and it was one of the government's efforts to suppress the 2019 to 2020 Iranian protests [3]. A separate Wikipedia article describes an internet blackout imposed on 8 January 2026, the twelfth day of the 2025-2026 protests in Iran [2]. Reports from Iran described widespread telephone and internet blackouts in Tehran, with additional disruptions in other cities [2]. Cybersecurity experts reported that Iran's National Information Network was also fully disconnected, even internally within Iran [2]. These articles describe past events. They do not establish the current state of internet access in Iran as of the date of this article, and they are not a substitute for the measurement source the contract uses [1][2][3].

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