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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Name: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$220.39K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Vol

$220.39K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $220.39K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $220.39K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	98%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	2%
Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	0%
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	0%
Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	0%
Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	0%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$220.39K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, thi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, thi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portw"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $220.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $39.8K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.54)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $14.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $19.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $26.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.1% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $64.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $19.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $15.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $59.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics