Name: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

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Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April? | PredictPedia

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7 markets tracked

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	44%
Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	26%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	14%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	12%
Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	5%
Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	3%
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Poly	3%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (32 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, thi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portw"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $51.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.15)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $827
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $668
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $764
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $644
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

31d 11h remaining

Apr 30, 2026 12:00 AM

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15¢

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Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

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Events (1)

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Markets (7)

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

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Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

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