Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?
PM $467.3K
1
2
Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?
PM $467.3K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 85%.
Polymarket
- December 3185%
- October 3120%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $467.3K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event asks whether Russia will capture a specified building in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast. The primary resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as a fallback if the ISW map is unavailable [1]. A "Yes" outcome requires continuous shading under "Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain" or "Assessed Russian Advances" that persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle [1]. Shading under "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas" or "Claimed Russian Territory" does not qualify [1]. A negotiated settlement can qualify, but an announcement giving only de jure control does not, because "Actual control must be established" [1].
The two listed markets differ mainly in their deadlines. The December 31, 2026 contract lists an end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, and the October 31, 2026 contract lists 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules refer to a 11:59 PM ET cutoff [1]. A listed end time is a close time, not a resolution or an announced event.
Reading the snapshot
The saved data has a provider observation time of 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z and a source retrieval time of 2026-10-16T02:17:42.266Z [1]. Prices may have changed since the observation.
In the December contract, the saved prices are Yes at 0.86 and No at 0.14 [1]. In the October contract, they are Yes at 0.20 and No at 0.80 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two contracts have different deadlines and different closing times, so their prices should not be averaged or treated as an arbitrage signal. The sample includes both saved markets for this event, and it is not partial [1]. The saved data does not include volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders hold each position.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit at these levels. It also does not include recent battlefield reporting, the ISW map status at the time of observation, or whether any qualifying shading has appeared. The sample covers only this saved Polymarket event and does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome.
References
- Polymarket: Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCAI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
