This prediction market topic concerns whether the United States Supreme Court will issue a ruling before January 1, 2029, declaring that same-sex marriage is not a right guaranteed by the Constitution. Such a ruling would effectively overturn the landmark 2015 decision in Obergefell v. Hodges, which established a constitutional right to same-sex marriage nationwide. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the Court issues such a ruling before the deadline. The topic has gained significant attention due to shifting judicial philosophies on the Court and recent decisions that have signaled a willingness to reconsider established precedents on social issues. Interest in this market stems from the profound legal, political, and social implications of potentially reversing a decade-old civil rights precedent, affecting millions of American families and the legal landscape of marriage equality. The market's timeframe, ending before 2029, captures a period of potential judicial transition and political pressure, making it a focal point for observers of constitutional law and civil rights.

Historical Context

The modern legal battle for same-sex marriage in the United States began in the 1990s with state-level litigation. A pivotal moment came in 1996 with the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), which defined marriage for federal purposes as between one man and one woman. In 2013, the Supreme Court's decision in United States v. Windsor struck down a key provision of DOMA, granting federal recognition to same-sex marriages performed in states where it was legal. This set the stage for Obergefell v. Hodges in 2015. In a 5-4 decision authored by Justice Anthony Kennedy, the Court held that the Fourteenth Amendment requires all states to license marriages between two people of the same sex and to recognize such marriages performed out-of-state. This established a nationwide constitutional right. The legal landscape shifted dramatically with the 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, which overturned Roe v. Wade. The Dobbs majority opinion, by rejecting the substantive due process framework that underpinned both Roe and Obergefell, created immediate uncertainty about the stability of other privacy-based rights, including the right to same-sex marriage.

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