Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETEarnings

Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?

Name: Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?
End: 2026-01-16T14:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.33K

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Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?

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Polymarket

markets · $5.33K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.33K

100%

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Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?	Poly	75%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

75%

Top Probability

$5.33K

Volume

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About This Event

As of market creation, M&T Bank is estimated to release earnings on January 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for M&T Bank's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.50 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if M&T Bank reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.50 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If M&T Bank releases e

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?
**Category:** Earnings | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 16, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** As of market creation, M&T Bank is estimated to release earnings on January 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for M&T Bank's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.50 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if M&T Bank reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.50 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If M&T Bank releases e

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"As of market creation, M&T Bank is estimated to release earnings on January 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for M&T Bank's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.50 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if M&T Bank reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.50 for the relevant quar"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $344
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 15.51)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 16, 2026): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

2h 2mremaining

Jan 16, 2026 2:00 PM

Ending Soon

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

75¢

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Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?

Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?

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Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)