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Will the US government release the second Caribbean boat strike video before March? | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEntertainment

Will the US government release the second Caribbean boat strike video before March?

Total Volume

$19.01K

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Markets

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Will the US government release the second Caribbean boat strike video before March?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $19.01K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.01K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will a U.S. government release of the full recording of the September 2, 2025 strike on a small boat in the Caribbean Sea be released in None before Mar 1, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a U.S. government release of the full recording of the September 2, 2025 strike on a small boat in the Caribbean Sea be released in None before Mar 1, 2026?	Kalshi	10%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the US government release the second Caribbean boat strike video before March?
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Mar 1, 2026

If a U.S. government release of a recording of the second strike on September 2, 2025 on a small boat in the Caribbean Sea is available through official channels before Mar 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The media must be made available to the general public through at least one official distribution channel. Leaked or unauthorized releases are not encompassed in the Payout Criterion. This market will close and expire early if the media is officially released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a U.S. government release of a recording of the second strike on September 2, 2025 on a small boat in the Caribbean Sea is available through official channels before Mar 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The media must be made available to the general public through at le"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.56M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a U.S. government release of the full recording of the September 2, 2025 strike on a small boat in the Caribbean Sea be released in None before Mar 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 8, 2026): Vol $19.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

10¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/vUE-Jl" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the US government release the second Caribbean boat strike video before March?"></iframe>

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Will the US government release the second Caribbean boat strike video before March?

Will the US government release the second Caribbean boat strike video before March?

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Will a U.S. government release of the full recording of the September 2, 2025 strike on a small boat in the Caribbean Sea be released in None before Mar 1, 2026?

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Events (1)