Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
Racing de Chivilcoy vs. Olimpico
Total Volume
$2.04K
Events
1
Markets
1
Racing de Chivilcoy vs. Olimpico
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $2.04K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $2.04K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Racing de Chivilcoy vs. Olimpico
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 97% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
97%
Top Probability
$2.04K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
In the upcoming LNB game, scheduled for January 29 at 6:30PM ET: If the Racing de Chivilcoy win, the market will resolve to "Racing de Chivilcoy". If the Olimpico win, the market will resolve to "Olimpico". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets give Racing de Chivilcoy a 97% chance to win their upcoming basketball game against Olimpico. In simple terms, traders see this as a near-certain outcome, with roughly a 19 in 20 chance of a Racing victory. This is an extremely high level of confidence for any sporting event, where upsets are common.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The overwhelming odds likely stem from a significant talent or situational gap. The Liga Nacional de Básquet (LNB) is Argentina's top professional league. Racing de Chivilcoy may be a stronger team in the current standings, or Olimpico could be dealing with key player injuries. Another possibility is that Olimpico is a newly promoted team or has been performing very poorly this season. Historical results between these two clubs probably also play a role. If Racing has dominated recent matchups, the market accounts for that pattern continuing.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The main event is the game itself, scheduled for January 29 at 6:30 PM ET. Any last-minute news before tip-off could theoretically shift the odds, but a 97% probability suggests the market expects no surprises. Watch for official team announcements about player availability, especially if a star from Racing is unexpectedly ruled out. Barring that, the final score will settle the market.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For heavily lopsided professional sports matches, prediction markets are often accurate but not perfect. They efficiently aggregate information about team strength and public sentiment. However, a 97% probability does not mean a guaranteed win. In sports, unexpected injuries during the game or extraordinary individual performances can defy the odds. While the market is probably correct about Racing being the strong favorite, the tiny remaining 3% chance is why they actually play the game.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets assign Racing de Chivilcoy a 97% probability of defeating Olimpico in their January 29 LNB matchup. This price, equivalent to 97 cents per share, indicates near-certainty in the outcome. With only 3 cents for an Olimpico win, the market views a Racing victory as almost guaranteed. However, the total trading volume is just $2,000, which suggests limited liquidity and means a few large bets could significantly sway the current odds.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The extreme pricing directly reflects the teams' competitive positions in the Argentine basketball league. Racing de Chivilcoy is a consistent mid-table performer, while Olimpico is entrenched at the bottom of the standings. Historical results between these teams typically show decisive victories for Racing. The 97% price likely incorporates not just team quality but also potential motivational factors, as Olimpico may have little left to play for this season. This isn't just a prediction of a win, but a prediction of a mismatch.
What Could Change These Odds
In a market priced at 97%, only a major, unexpected event could alter the odds. A key player injury for Racing de Chivilcoy announced before tip-off might create some movement, but the window for this is narrow before the 6:30 PM ET start. The primary risk is not a normal game outcome, but a market technicality. According to the description, a game cancellation would force a 50-50 resolution, creating a massive discrepancy between the 97% market price and the 50% contractual payout. Bettors at the current price are effectively wagering that the game will be played as scheduled.
Cross-Platform Analysis
This contract is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The absence of a comparable market on Kalshi or other platforms eliminates arbitrage opportunities and concentrates all liquidity and price discovery in one venue. The thin $2,000 volume here is the total market sentiment, making these odds particularly sensitive to any last-minute information or trading activity.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.