
$3.92K
2
8

$3.92K
2
8
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II New Hampshire Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
Prediction markets currently price a 94% probability that incumbent Senator Jeff Merkley will secure the Democratic nomination for Oregon's 2026 Senate race. This near-certain price, observed across both Polymarket and Kalshi, indicates the market views a successful primary challenge as highly improbable. With a combined trading volume of approximately $7,000, liquidity remains thin, reflecting the low perceived uncertainty in the outcome. A 94% chance suggests traders see this as virtually assured barring an extraordinary event.
Three structural factors solidify Merkley's dominant position. First, incumbency advantage provides immense benefits in fundraising, name recognition, and institutional support. Second, Merkley maintains a solidly progressive reputation within the Democratic Party, aligning with Oregon's dominant liberal electorate and minimizing room for a credible challenge from his left. Third, there is no visible, well-funded opponent signaling a serious primary campaign. Historical patterns in Oregon politics show that established Democratic incumbents like Ron Wyden and Merkley himself have faced only token primary opposition.
The primary odds could shift only under a low-probability, high-impact scenario. A significant health issue for Merkley, though there is no public indication of one, would immediately reset the race. A major scandal or an abrupt retirement announcement would similarly upend the market. The filing deadline in March 2026 is the key formal catalyst. If a prominent Oregon Democrat, such as a sitting U.S. Representative or statewide official, were to declare a primary challenge before that date, it would rapidly deflate the current 94% price, though such a challenge is considered highly unlikely given the political risk involved.
The market is listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with prices tightly aligned around the 94% level. The absence of a meaningful arbitrage spread reflects consensus on the fundamental outlook and the low liquidity, which discourages significant cross-platform trading. Any minor price discrepancies are likely due to the shallow order books on both platforms rather than a substantive difference in market views. Traders on both platforms are effectively pricing in the same core assumption of an uncontested or easily won primary for Senator Merkley.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on who will secure the Democratic nomination for the United States Senate race in New Hampshire in 2026. The market specifically resolves based on whether a designated candidate, referred to as 'X', wins the Democratic Party's primary to contest the Class II Senate seat being vacated by Republican Senator Jeanne Shaheen, who is not seeking re-election after her current term ends. The 2026 election will be a pivotal contest for control of the Senate, with New Hampshire being a perennial swing state where Democrats have recently held both Senate seats but face strong Republican challenges. Interest in this market stems from the high stakes of the race, the open nature of the Democratic field with no clear frontrunner yet, and New Hampshire's outsized role in national politics as a first-in-the-nation primary state. Political observers are closely watching for early indications of candidate strength, fundraising prowess, and alignment with the state's unique electorate, which blends liberal enclaves with more conservative rural areas.
New Hampshire's Senate electoral history is marked by competitiveness and narrow victories. The Class II seat up in 2026 has been held by Democrats since 2008, when Jeanne Shaheen defeated incumbent Republican John Sununu. Prior to that, Republicans held the seat for decades, with figures like Warren Rudman and Judd Gregg. Shaheen's three successful elections (2008, 2014, 2020) were all competitive, with her 2014 win by just over 3 points against Scott Brown being particularly close. This history underscores that while Democrats have recently had success, the seat is never safe in a state that voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and has elected Republican governors frequently. The 2022 Senate race, where incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan defeated Don Bolduc by approximately 54% to 45%, demonstrated the continued potency of Republican challenges in favorable national environments. The open seat in 2026 will be the first without an incumbent Democrat running since 2008, creating a dynamic similar to that earlier cycle which saw a competitive Democratic primary before the general election.
The outcome of the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race will have significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. With Democrats defending multiple seats in swing states that cycle, holding New Hampshire could be essential for maintaining or losing a Senate majority. This affects national policy on issues from judicial appointments to healthcare and climate legislation. For New Hampshire residents, the election determines whether they have a senator with seniority and influence in Washington or a freshman who may struggle to secure federal resources for the state. The Democratic primary also represents a battleground for the party's ideological direction, testing whether a progressive or a moderate candidate is better suited to win in a purple state. The result will influence campaign strategies nationwide and provide early signals about the political climate heading into the 2028 presidential election.
As of late 2024, the Democratic field for the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race remains undeclared and speculative. Potential candidates like Representatives Chris Pappas and Ann Kuster are focused on their 2024 re-election campaigns to the House. The New Hampshire Democratic Party, under Chairman Ray Buckley, is in a quiet recruitment phase, with public discussions expected to intensify after the November 2024 elections. Senator Jeanne Shaheen has confirmed she will not seek a fourth term, and no prominent Democrat has yet announced a candidacy. Early polling is nonexistent, and the political landscape will be shaped by the results of the 2024 presidential and congressional elections, which will set the national environment for the 2026 cycle.
As of late 2024, no candidates have officially declared for the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race. The seat is open because incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is retiring. Potential Democratic candidates frequently mentioned include U.S. Representatives Chris Pappas and Ann McLane Kuster.
The primary election date has not been officially set but will likely be in September 2026. New Hampshire state law traditionally schedules its state primary for the second Tuesday in September, which would be September 8, 2026. This date is subject to confirmation by the New Hampshire Secretary of State.
Yes, the Class II seat up in 2026 last flipped parties in 2008 when Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeated Republican incumbent John Sununu. Prior to that, Republican Judd Gregg held the seat for three terms after winning it in 1992 following the retirement of Democrat Gordon Humphrey.
U.S. Senate seats are divided into three classes (I, II, III) based on when their terms end. Class II seats are those up for election in years ending in 6, like 2006, 2016, and 2026. This classification system ensures only one-third of the Senate is up for election every two years.
New Hampshire has an open primary system, meaning voters who are registered as undeclared (independent) can choose on primary day which party's ballot they wish to vote on. This system often leads candidates to appeal to moderate and independent voters during the primary campaign.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
7 markets tracked

No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 4% | 1% | 3% |
Different
Similar

In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II New Hampshire Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire. If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.



This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire. If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the

If Karishma Manzur wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II New Hampshire Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Karishma Manzur wins the party's nomination.
No related news found
Polymarket
$1.50K
Kalshi
$2.42K
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/vWw0u5" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?"></iframe>