Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
PM $227.4K
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1
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
PM $227.4K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 2.8% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes2.8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $227.4K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.” If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether Prince Andrew will be sentenced to any time in jail or prison. It resolves "Yes" if that happens "by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET," and "No" otherwise [1]. The rules state that the market "will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison," and that a sentence qualifies "regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence" [1].
Several conditions matter for interpretation. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, investigations without charges, and public accusations without criminal charges do not qualify [1]. If all criminal charges are dropped, including through a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, the market resolves "No" [1]. The rules name official government and law enforcement information as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting possibly used as well [1].
The listed end time in the provider data is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This corresponds to the December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline in the rules. The end time is a closing timestamp, not an announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation was taken at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:15:50.483Z [1]. At observation time, the market showed "Yes" at 0.031 and "No" at 0.969 on Polymarket, with status "active" [1]. These are snapshot prices from one provider observation. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The sample covers one market from one platform, and the saved coverage shows one included market out of one total [1]. The evidence does not include other platforms or related contracts, so no cross-platform comparison is possible here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why the price was at this level, how many traders hold positions, or what recent developments may have occurred. No volume or liquidity figures are supplied, and volume would not establish either one. The evidence also does not show whether any criminal case is pending, what charges exist, or any scheduled court dates. Anyone reading this snapshot later should check the current price and the current status of the contract directly, because this observation is no longer current.
References
- Polymarket: Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract asks whether Prince Andrew will be sentenced to any time in jail or prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1]. If that happens, the market resolves to "Yes". Otherwise it resolves to "No" [1]. The contract is therefore about a court outcome, specifically a custodial sentence, rather than about accusations, investigations, or civil claims. The contract's rules are narrow. Any sentence that includes jail or prison time qualifies, regardless of later appeals or changes to the sentence [1]. An initial sentencing that does not include prison does not close the market. It stays open through the end of 2026 or until a custodial sentence is imposed [1]. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, and public accusations without filed criminal charges do not qualify, even if widely reported or described as charges [1]. The contract also addresses the case where prosecution ends. If all criminal charges are dropped, whether through a dismissal, a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or any other outcome in which no judgment is or will be rendered, the market resolves to "No" [1]. The rules name official information from the relevant government and law enforcement as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting also possibly used [1]. Timing matters for reading the contract. The rules set the deadline as December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The provider's listed end time is a separate field, set to 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That listed time is a provider timestamp and should not be read as a separate event date or an announced court schedule.
Historical Context
The supplied background is limited. A Wikipedia article on the subject provides biographical information about his family and place in the line of succession, including that he was eighth in line as of 2026 [3]. A separate Wikipedia list covers the longest prison sentences actually served by a single person worldwide, and notes that such cases rarely coincide with the longest sentences handed down because some countries restrict sentences without parole or limit how long a convict can remain imprisoned [2]. That list does not concern this case and does not establish any sentence for this subject.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow legal event: whether a court imposes a jail or prison sentence on Prince Andrew for any criminal charge before the stated deadline [1]. Because civil, regulatory, and investigative actions are excluded, the contract does not track public controversy or reputational developments as such [1]. Because a dismissal or plea without a judgment resolves the market to "No", the contract also depends on whether any criminal case proceeds to a sentencing decision [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Do civil lawsuits or public accusations count toward a Yes resolution?
No. The rules say civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, and public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as charges [1].
Does a later appeal change the result if a prison sentence is imposed?
No. The rules state that any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence [1].
What happens if an initial sentence does not include prison time?
The market stays open. The rules say it remains open through December 31, 2026 or until a custodial sentence is imposed, regardless of an initial sentencing that does not include prison [1].
What happens if the charges are dropped?
The market resolves to "No" if all criminal charges are dropped for any reason, including a dismissal, a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or any other situation in which no judgment is rendered or will be rendered [1].
What sources decide the outcome?
The primary resolution source is official information from the relevant government and law enforcement, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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