Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many Florida mail votes will be cast?

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$6.13K

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How many Florida mail votes will be cast?

Vol

$6.13K

Events

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Kalshi

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markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $6.13K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $6.13K

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8 markets tracked

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	96%
Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.8 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	87%
Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	62%
Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.1 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	45%
Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	36%
Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$6.13K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

As of Nov 4, 2026 If the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab is at least X million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the headline "Mail ballots returned" figure at the top of the Florida page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. This is the tracker's figure at that time, not the final official count, and it may not i

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Florida mail votes will be cast?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** As of Nov 4, 2026

If the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab is at least X million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the headline "Mail ballots returned" figure at the top of the Florida page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. This is the tracker's figure at that time, not the final official count, and it may not i

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab is at least 2.1 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the headline "Mail ballots returned" figure at the top of the Flo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.1 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $863
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $413
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.8 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 87.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $503
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many Florida mail votes will be cast?

Volume$6.13K

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab is at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the headline "Mail ballots returned" figure at the top of the Flo

KALSHI

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab is at least 1.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the headline "Mail ballots returned" figure at the top of the Flo

KALSHI

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.8 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.0¢No 13.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.8 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab is at least 1.8 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the headline "Mail ballots returned" figure at the top of the Flo

KALSHI

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab is at least 2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the headline "Mail ballots returned" figure at the top of the Flori

KALSHI

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.1 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.5¢No 55.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.1 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab is at least 2.1 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the headline "Mail ballots returned" figure at the top of the Flo

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How many Florida mail votes will be cast?

How many Florida mail votes will be cast?

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Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

How many Florida mail votes will be cast?

Markets (8)

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.8 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.8 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.1 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.1 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many Florida mail votes will be cast?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.8 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 1.8 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.1 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the number of Florida mail ballots returned for the 2026 general election as reported by the UF Election Lab be at least 2.1 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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