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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Name: Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$262.13K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Vol

$262.13K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $262.13K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $262.13K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

17 markets tracked

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(17)

Market	Platform	Price
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?	Poly	43%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?	Poly	35%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?	Poly	25%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia" before 2027?	Poly	23%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?	Poly	23%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	Poly	22%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?	Poly	21%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?	Poly	19%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?	Poly	17%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?	Poly	16%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?	Poly	15%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Poly	14%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027?	Poly	14%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?	Poly	14%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?	Poly	13%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?	Poly	12%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?	Poly	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

43%

Top Probability

$262.13K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (169 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidentia"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $262.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $134.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.96)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $31.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $37.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $18.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $19.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $54.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $310
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $71.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $419
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $354
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics