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$3.45K
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9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before Jan 24, 2026 If X is in the Top 10 on Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. **This market and these products have not been endorsed by Billboard. Any references to "Billboard", the "Hot 100," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Billboard and Kalshi.** This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting which songs will appear in the Top 10 positions of the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specific tracking week ending January 24, 2026. The Billboard Hot 100 is the definitive music industry standard in the United States, ranking the most popular songs across all genres based on a weighted formula incorporating streaming activity, radio airplay audience impressions, and digital sales data. The chart is published weekly by Billboard magazine, with data compiled by Luminate. Predicting its composition requires analyzing complex, real-time consumption patterns, artist release strategies, and cultural trends. Interest in this market stems from music industry professionals, financial analysts, and fans who use it to gauge commercial success, measure artist momentum, and understand shifting listener preferences. The outcome serves as a high-profile snapshot of the musical landscape at a specific moment, influencing marketing campaigns, tour planning, and investment decisions within the entertainment sector.
The Billboard Hot 100 was first published on August 4, 1958, combining previously separate sales and airplay charts into a single national standard. Its methodology has evolved dramatically, reflecting changes in music consumption. A pivotal shift occurred in the late 1990s with the incorporation of electronically monitored airplay data, replacing manual radio reports. Another major transformation began in the 2010s with the rise of streaming. In 2013, Billboard integrated YouTube video data and on-demand audio streams from services like Spotify into the formula, a recognition of the digital era. By 2020, the chart's formula was heavily weighted toward streaming, which typically constitutes over 70% of a song's points. Historically, achieving a Top 10 hit has been a mark of mainstream success, with artists like The Beatles, Mariah Carey, and Drake holding records for the most entries. The chart has also been a barometer of cultural moments, from the British Invasion to the disco era and the rise of hip-hop. Predicting its composition requires understanding this history of methodological adaptation to new technologies.
The composition of the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 has significant economic and cultural ramifications. For the music industry, a Top 10 hit can dramatically increase an artist's earning potential through higher streaming royalties, more lucrative touring opportunities, and enhanced brand partnership deals. It validates marketing investments for record labels and can trigger contract bonuses. Culturally, the Top 10 reflects and shapes mainstream tastes, often amplifying certain genres, artists, and social narratives. It influences what music is played in public spaces, featured in advertising, and discussed in media. The chart's diversity, or lack thereof, is frequently analyzed as a measure of representation within popular culture. For financial markets, the performance of publicly traded music companies and streaming services can be indirectly linked to their ability to produce and monetize chart-topping content. The specific week in question, late January, is also significant as it follows the holiday season and precedes the Grammy Awards, making it a period where established hits compete with new strategic releases aiming for a strong start to the year.
As of late 2024, the Billboard Hot 100 is characterized by the sustained power of streaming giants and viral moments. Artists like Taylor Swift, Morgan Wallen, SZA, and Drake have demonstrated remarkable chart stamina, with songs often remaining in the Top 10 for many consecutive weeks. The rise of country music and Latin music as consistent chart forces is a notable trend. The methodology remains stable but is periodically reviewed by Billboard and Luminate to ensure it accurately reflects consumption. Predictors for the January 2026 chart are already analyzing long-term release cycles, as major artists often plan album drops in the fourth quarter of the preceding year to build momentum into the new year.
The chart uses a weighted formula based on U.S. streaming data from audio and video platforms, radio airplay audience impressions as measured by Luminate, and digital song sales. The exact weights are proprietary but are generally acknowledged to prioritize streaming, followed by radio, then sales.
It covers the tracking week from Friday, January 16, 2026, through Thursday, January 22, 2026. All streaming, airplay, and sales data within that seven-day window will be counted toward the chart published for the week dated January 24, 2026.
Yes, it is common. A high-volume first week of streaming and sales, often driven by a major artist's new single or album release, can propel a song directly into the Top 10, or even to the number one position.
Yes. Official audio and video streams from YouTube and other video platforms approved by Luminate are included in the streaming component of the Hot 100 formula, making viral music videos a significant chart factor.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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9 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will I Just Might be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 24, 2026 in 2026? | Kalshi | 100% |
Will End of Beginning be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 24, 2026 in 2026? | Kalshi | 97% |
Will Opalite be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 24, 2026 in 2026? | Kalshi | 96% |
Will MUTT be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 24, 2026 in 2026? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Daisies be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 24, 2026 in 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will WHERE IS MY HUSBAND! be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 24, 2026 in 2026? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will So Easy (To Fall in Love) be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 24, 2026 in 2026? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will I Got Better be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 24, 2026 in 2026? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will A COLD PLAY be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 24, 2026 in 2026? | Kalshi | 1% |
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