$11.30K
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$11.30K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the upcoming EFL Championship game, scheduled for Saturday, February 21, 2026 between Stoke City FC and Leicester City FC.
Traders on Polymarket currently give a 72% chance that the Stoke City vs. Leicester City match will see over 1.5 total goals scored. In simpler terms, the collective bet is a roughly 3 in 4 chance that at least two goals will be scored by both teams combined. This shows strong, but not absolute, confidence that the game will not be a low-scoring 0-0 or 1-0 affair.
Two main factors are likely driving this prediction. First, Leicester City are the clear league leaders and the Championship's top-scoring team. Their attacking quality makes them strong favorites to score at least once. Second, while Stoke City have struggled this season, their home games at bet365 Stadium have not been especially tight defensively. Stoke's recent matches have frequently featured goals at both ends.
The historical context between these teams also supports the idea of goals. Their last five meetings in all competitions have all seen over 1.5 goals, with three of those games having over 2.5.
The main event is the match itself, kicking off at 7:30 AM ET on February 21. The only factor that could shift predictions now is a last-minute team news announcement, such as a key attacking player being ruled out for either side through injury. Confirmation that a star striker like Leicester's Jamie Vardy is unavailable could cause the odds to drop slightly before kickoff.
For major soccer leagues, prediction markets on total goals are generally quite accurate. They efficiently combine public data like team statistics with the informed opinions of many fans and bettors. However, a 72% probability still leaves a significant 28% chance for a different outcome. Soccer can be unpredictable, and a single red card or an off-day for the attackers could easily lead to a 1-0 result. These markets are a good gauge of likelihood, not a guarantee.
Prediction markets assign a 72% probability that the EFL Championship match between Stoke City and Leicester City will see over 1.5 total goals. This price, translating to implied odds of -257, shows a clear expectation for a match with at least two goals. However, with only $2,000 in total volume spread thinly across five related markets, this confidence level is built on shallow liquidity. The market's view is definitive but not heavily capitalized.
The primary driver is Leicester City's offensive performance this season. They are the league's top-scoring team, averaging over two goals per game. Their attacking quality, featuring players like Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, consistently breaks down Championship defenses. Stoke City's defensive record also informs this line. They have conceded multiple goals in four of their last six league matches, demonstrating a vulnerability that Leicester is perfectly equipped to exploit. Historical context matters too. The reverse fixture in September ended 2-0 to Leicester, and three of the last five meetings between these sides have featured three or more goals.
The most immediate risk to the "Over" position is Stoke's potential tactical setup. Under manager Steven Schumacher, they may adopt a deeply defensive posture at home to stifle Leicester's attack, aiming for a low-scoring draw. Matchday squad news will be critical. An unexpected absence of a key Leicester attacker could dampen goal projections. While the market heavily favors goals, the thin liquidity means any sharp, late money against the consensus could cause significant price movement before the 7:30 AM ET kickoff on February 21.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The absence of a comparable contract on a platform like Kalshi prevents any cross-platform arbitrage analysis. The isolation on a single platform, combined with the low total volume, means the 72% price is more susceptible to influence from a small number of large trades. Bettors should view this as a price set by a niche audience rather than a broad market consensus.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 39% |
| Poly | 33% |
| Poly | 30% |
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