Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets are currently pricing in a 62% probability that Ukraine will conduct another strike against a tanker in the Black Sea before January 31, 2026. This price, translating to a 62% chance, indicates the market views a follow-up attack as more likely than not, but with significant uncertainty remaining. The moderate confidence level reflects the market's thin liquidity, with only $7,000 in total volume across related markets on Polymarket.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Two primary factors are supporting the elevated probability. First, the established pattern of Ukrainian naval drone warfare provides a clear precedent. The successful December 10, 2025 strike on the "Dashan" tanker demonstrates both capability and intent to target vessels involved in Russian oil logistics within Ukraine's claimed economic zone. Second, the strategic rationale remains strong. Disrupting the shadow fleet used to export Russian oil inflicts economic costs on Moscow and projects Ukrainian force into a key maritime domain, making repeated strikes a likely continuation of this asymmetric campaign.

What Could Change These Odds

The odds could decrease significantly if Russia demonstrates an effective new defense, such as deploying enhanced escort patrols or electronic countermeasures that successfully intercept sea drones, thereby raising the perceived risk of failure for Ukraine. Conversely, the probability could surge above current levels on any new official Ukrainian statements explicitly threatening further maritime strikes, or if there is an observed increase in the concentration of potential target vessels in the western Black Sea. The 15-day window until resolution is short, making any new geopolitical incident or military announcement in the region a immediate catalyst for price volatility.