This prediction market topic, titled 'Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition,' focuses on the probability of the United States conducting military strikes against five specific nations in the Western Hemisphere between the market's creation and March 31, 2026. The market resolves to 'No' if the U.S. executes a strike on Venezuela, Iran, Colombia, Mexico, or Cuba within this timeframe. Otherwise, it resolves to 'Yes.' This market serves as a collective forecasting tool on U.S. foreign policy and military intervention, reflecting geopolitical tensions and the Biden administration's stated preference for diplomacy over unilateral action. Recent years have seen heightened volatility, with incidents like the 2020 U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani and ongoing sanctions regimes against Venezuela and Cuba. The inclusion of Colombia and Mexico, traditionally U.S. allies, underscores concerns over spillover from regional conflicts and transnational crime. Interest in this market stems from analysts, policymakers, and observers gauging the risk of escalation in multiple theaters, from the Middle East to Latin America, and the potential for miscalculation that could draw the U.S. into new military engagements.

Historical Context

The historical context for potential U.S. strikes against these nations is deep and varied. U.S. military intervention in Latin America has a long history, including the 1898 Spanish-American War that led to Cuba's nominal independence under U.S. influence, the 1903 separation of Panama from Colombia, and multiple 20th-century interventions. The 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion and the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis brought the U.S. and Cuba to the brink of nuclear war. In 1989, the U.S. invaded Panama to depose Manuel Noriega. Regarding Iran, direct conflict has been avoided since the 1979 revolution, but the U.S. has engaged in covert actions, cyber warfare, and the 2020 drone strike that killed Qasem Soleimani. With Venezuela, tensions escalated significantly in 2019 when the U.S. recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as interim president and imposed crippling sanctions, with military options reportedly discussed. U.S.-Colombia relations have been defined since 2000 by 'Plan Colombia,' a multi-billion dollar security partnership primarily focused on counter-narcotics and counter-insurgency, involving U.S. military advisors and contractors. While a strike on Mexico is unprecedented in the modern era, the 1846-1848 Mexican-American War and the 1916 Punitive Expedition led by General John J. Pershing into Mexican territory are historical reminders of cross-border conflict.

Frequently Asked Questions