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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
![]() | Poly | 49% |
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This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Another US strike on Venezuela - US strikes Iran - US strike on Colombia - US strike on Mexico - US strike on Cuba Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confi
The Polymarket contract "Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition" is currently priced at 40%. This indicates the market assigns a 40% probability that the US will not conduct a military strike on Venezuela, Iran, Colombia, Mexico, or Cuba before March 31, 2026. Conversely, the 60% implied probability on the "Yes" side suggests traders see a qualifying US strike within the next 75 days as the more likely outcome. The market's pricing reflects significant uncertainty, leaning toward geopolitical escalation but acknowledging a substantial chance of continued restraint.
The primary driver is heightened regional tension, particularly concerning Iran and Venezuela. Recent incidents, including attacks on US forces in the Middle East by Iran-aligned groups and continued Venezuelan military cooperation with US adversaries, have kept the risk of direct US retaliation on the agenda. Historical patterns also inform the odds. The US has demonstrated a willingness to conduct targeted strikes in the Middle East in response to threats against personnel, making an Iran-related event a focal point for traders. However, strikes in the Western Hemisphere (Colombia, Mexico, Cuba) are considered less probable due to complex diplomatic ramifications, pulling the overall "No" probability upward from lower levels.
The odds are highly sensitive to immediate geopolitical triggers. An escalation in the Middle East, such as a major attack causing US casualties, could rapidly collapse the "No" price toward 0%. Conversely, a sustained period of quiet or a successful diplomatic agreement, such as a renewal of nuclear talks with Iran, could boost the "No" probability. The upcoming US presidential transition period introduces additional volatility. Market perception of the incoming administration's foreign policy posture, particularly its willingness to use kinetic force, will be a key catalyst. The thin $46K volume means new information could cause sharp price swings.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
$50.85K
1
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This prediction market topic, titled 'Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition,' focuses on the probability of the United States conducting military strikes against five specific nations in the Western Hemisphere between the market's creation and March 31, 2026. The market resolves to 'No' if the U.S. executes a strike on Venezuela, Iran, Colombia, Mexico, or Cuba within this timeframe. Otherwise, it resolves to 'Yes.' This market serves as a collective forecasting tool on U.S. foreign policy and military intervention, reflecting geopolitical tensions and the Biden administration's stated preference for diplomacy over unilateral action. Recent years have seen heightened volatility, with incidents like the 2020 U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani and ongoing sanctions regimes against Venezuela and Cuba. The inclusion of Colombia and Mexico, traditionally U.S. allies, underscores concerns over spillover from regional conflicts and transnational crime. Interest in this market stems from analysts, policymakers, and observers gauging the risk of escalation in multiple theaters, from the Middle East to Latin America, and the potential for miscalculation that could draw the U.S. into new military engagements.
The historical context for potential U.S. strikes against these nations is deep and varied. U.S. military intervention in Latin America has a long history, including the 1898 Spanish-American War that led to Cuba's nominal independence under U.S. influence, the 1903 separation of Panama from Colombia, and multiple 20th-century interventions. The 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion and the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis brought the U.S. and Cuba to the brink of nuclear war. In 1989, the U.S. invaded Panama to depose Manuel Noriega. Regarding Iran, direct conflict has been avoided since the 1979 revolution, but the U.S. has engaged in covert actions, cyber warfare, and the 2020 drone strike that killed Qasem Soleimani. With Venezuela, tensions escalated significantly in 2019 when the U.S. recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as interim president and imposed crippling sanctions, with military options reportedly discussed. U.S.-Colombia relations have been defined since 2000 by 'Plan Colombia,' a multi-billion dollar security partnership primarily focused on counter-narcotics and counter-insurgency, involving U.S. military advisors and contractors. While a strike on Mexico is unprecedented in the modern era, the 1846-1848 Mexican-American War and the 1916 Punitive Expedition led by General John J. Pershing into Mexican territory are historical reminders of cross-border conflict.
The outcome of this prediction market matters because it reflects the perceived stability or volatility of U.S. foreign policy in critical regions. A 'Yes' resolution, indicating no strikes, would suggest a period of relative restraint and successful diplomatic management of crises. A 'No' resolution, triggered by a strike, would signal a major escalation with immediate and profound consequences. Such an event would likely trigger retaliatory measures, destabilize global energy markets given the oil reserves of Venezuela and Iran, and create new refugee flows, particularly from Latin America. Domestically, a new military engagement would reignite debates over congressional war powers, divert budgetary resources, and become a central issue in the 2024 and 2026 U.S. elections. For the nations listed, even the persistent speculation about strikes affects their economic planning, internal politics, and diplomatic alignments, potentially pushing them closer to U.S. rivals like China and Russia for security guarantees. The market also serves as a barometer of risk for global businesses and investors with exposure to these regions.
As of late 2024, the geopolitical landscape remains tense but without an imminent trigger for a U.S. strike against any of the five named nations. The U.S. and Iran are engaged in indirect talks, though the nuclear deal remains dormant. The U.S. maintains sanctions on Venezuela but has granted limited oil sanctions relief, and dialogue between the Maduro government and the opposition is fragile. The U.S. and Colombia continue security cooperation under President Petro, albeit with public disagreements on drug policy. The U.S.-Mexico relationship is focused on managing migration flows and fentanyl trafficking through diplomatic and law enforcement channels. The U.S. embargo on Cuba remains fully in place with no signs of a major policy shift. The primary near-term risk of a U.S. strike appears highest with Iran or Iranian proxies, should attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East significantly escalate.
The United States has not conducted a conventional military strike against Venezuela in modern history. However, the U.S. has imposed severe economic sanctions, recognized a rival government, and reportedly discussed military options internally during the 2019 political crisis.
For this prediction market, a 'U.S. strike' would typically mean a kinetic military action involving ordnance delivered by U.S. aircraft, drones, naval vessels, or missiles against targets within the specified country. It would require official U.S. confirmation or credible, multiple-source reporting to be considered confirmed.
Colombia is included due to the potential for a dramatic deterioration in bilateral relations under its current leftist government, the presence of armed groups that could threaten U.S. interests, and the historical precedent of U.S. intervention in Panamanian territory, which was part of Colombia until 1903.
The most likely scenario for a U.S. strike on Iran would be a significant escalation, such as a successful major attack by Iranian proxies causing numerous U.S. military casualties, or intelligence indicating Iran is imminent in developing a nuclear weapon, leaving diplomacy exhausted.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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