What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets are forecasting a very specific outcome for voter turnout in Costa Rica's 2026 presidential election. Traders collectively believe there is a near-certain chance, roughly 99 out of 100, that first-round turnout will land between 68% and 70% of the eligible electorate. This represents an extremely high level of consensus about a narrow range. In practical terms, the market is saying it would be a major surprise if turnout fell outside this two-percentage-point band.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

This tight forecast is anchored in Costa Rica's stable and consistent voting history. The country has one of the highest and most reliable voter turnout rates in the Americas. In the last four presidential elections since 2010, first-round turnout has been 69.1% (2010), 68.2% (2014), 66.0% (2018), and 60.0% (2022). The 2022 figure was a notable dip, attributed partly to pandemic-related effects and voter dissatisfaction. The current market prediction of 68-70% suggests traders expect a reversion to the longer-term historical norm, essentially betting that 2022 was an outlier and not a new trend. The consensus reflects confidence in the strength of Costa Rica's democratic institutions and mandatory voting laws, which compel most citizens to participate.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The defining event is election day itself, scheduled for February 1, 2026. The most important signals will come in the months before that date. Watch for the official start of the campaign period and the selection of presidential candidates by major parties like the PLN and PUSC. A particularly divisive candidate or a campaign focused on major economic issues could potentially energize or discourage voters. The final pre-election polls, typically released in January 2026, will provide the last major data point that could shift the market's expectations if they show a dramatic departure from the 68-70% range.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets are generally reliable for forecasting measurable, rule-based outcomes like election turnout, especially in stable democracies with clear historical patterns. For an event like this, the market is effectively aggregating decades of turnout data. The main limitation is the distant timeframe. The election is over a year away, and unforeseen political or economic shocks could disrupt the usual patterns. However, the overwhelming market confidence suggests traders see few plausible scenarios that would push turnout far from its historical average. The 99% probability is less a precise measure and more a statement that breaking from this long-established range is considered highly improbable.