$31.13K
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$31.13K
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Before 2029 If a member of the cabinet is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before Jan X Y then the market resolves to Yes. The cabinet is defined as the following: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secre
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to a cabinet impeachment before January 20, 2029. On Kalshi, the "Yes" share trades at approximately 35 cents, implying a 35% chance. This pricing suggests the market views such an event as plausible but not the base case, indicating significant uncertainty rather than a clear expectation. With only $27,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity is thin, meaning these odds are more sensitive to new information and may not yet represent a deeply held consensus.
Two primary factors are suppressing the probability. First, historical precedent is extremely limited. Only one cabinet member, Secretary of War William Belknap in 1876, has ever been impeached by the House, and he had already resigned. This creates a very high historical barrier. Second, the current political environment, while polarized, lacks a clear, imminent target. For an impeachment to proceed, it typically requires allegations of grave misconduct like treason, bribery, or high crimes, coupled with a House majority willing to pursue it. No sitting cabinet member currently faces allegations rising to that level under the Biden administration, and market pricing reflects this absence of an immediate catalyst.
The odds would shift dramatically with the emergence of a major scandal involving a cabinet secretary. A future administration change after the 2024 or 2028 elections could also alter the risk profile, as a new cabinet takes office. The most likely catalyst would be a specific, credible allegation of criminal conduct by a cabinet member that gains bipartisan traction in congressional oversight hearings. Furthermore, if the House shifts to a party opposing the president after an election, the incentive for politically motivated impeachment inquiries could increase, though historical precedent suggests even a hostile House remains reluctant to impeach cabinet members. The market will be highly reactive to any formal impeachment inquiry announcements from the House Judiciary Committee.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether any member of the United States presidential cabinet will be impeached by the House of Representatives before January 1, 2029. Impeachment is the formal process by which Congress can charge a federal official with 'Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.' For cabinet members, this process begins in the House, which can approve articles of impeachment by a simple majority vote. The topic specifically includes the Vice President and the heads of the 15 executive departments, such as the Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and Attorney General. The market resolves to 'Yes' if any of these officials is impeached before the deadline. The interest in this market stems from the extreme rarity of cabinet impeachments in U.S. history, combined with the current era of heightened political polarization and intense congressional oversight of the executive branch. Recent years have seen increased scrutiny of cabinet officials' conduct, from allegations of ethical violations to questions about policy implementation, making the theoretical possibility of impeachment a subject of political and public speculation. The market essentially gauges the perceived stability and legal vulnerability of the nation's highest appointed officials over a defined political cycle.
The impeachment of a U.S. cabinet secretary is an exceptionally rare event. The first and only secretary impeached prior to 2024 was William W. Belknap, President Ulysses S. Grant's Secretary of War, in 1876. The House impeached Belknap for corruption related to kickbacks from a Fort Sill trading post. He resigned just before the impeachment vote, but the House proceeded anyway, sending five articles to the Senate. The Senate ultimately acquitted him, with many senators believing they lacked jurisdiction over a resigned official. For 148 years, no cabinet secretary faced impeachment until 2024. The historical precedent for impeaching other officials is broader. Fifteen federal judges have been impeached and convicted by the Senate. President Andrew Johnson was impeached in 1868, and Presidents Bill Clinton and Donald Trump (twice) were impeached by the House in 1998, 2019, and 2021, respectively. All were acquitted by the Senate. This history shows that while impeachment is a constitutional tool, conviction and removal are a much higher bar, requiring a two-thirds Senate vote. The Belknap and Mayorkas cases establish that the House can impeach a cabinet member, but the political and evidentiary hurdles remain substantial.
The impeachment of a cabinet member carries profound political and governance implications. It represents a severe breakdown in the relationship between the legislative and executive branches, signaling a crisis of confidence in a key administration official. Such an event would consume massive amounts of congressional time and political capital, potentially stalling legislative progress on other critical issues like appropriations, national security, and economic policy. For the administration, it would be a major scandal, damaging its public credibility and potentially destabilizing the leadership of a vital department like Defense, State, or Justice during a time of global uncertainty. Beyond the immediate political theater, a cabinet impeachment trial in the Senate would force a very public, televised examination of alleged high-level misconduct, setting new precedents for oversight and accountability. It could influence future presidential appointments, as qualified individuals may become more reluctant to serve if they perceive a heightened risk of becoming a political target. The market's outcome is therefore a barometer of institutional stability and the intensity of partisan conflict in Washington.
The most recent and directly relevant development is the February 2024 impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas by the House of Representatives. The Senate, controlled by Democrats, quickly dismissed the charges in April 2024 without a full trial. This event has reset the modern precedent, proving that a cabinet impeachment is politically feasible. Following this, House Republicans have continued aggressive oversight hearings targeting other officials, most notably Attorney General Merrick Garland. In June 2024, the House voted to hold Garland in contempt of Congress for refusing to turn over audio recordings related to an investigation. While not impeachment, contempt citations are often discussed as potential preliminary steps. The political environment remains highly charged, with the presidential election cycle ensuring continued intense scrutiny of the Biden administration's cabinet.
The process begins in the House of Representatives, where any member can introduce impeachment resolutions. Typically, the House Judiciary Committee investigates and drafts articles of impeachment, which are then voted on by the full House. A simple majority vote (218 of 435) is required to impeach, formally charging the official. The case then moves to the Senate for a trial, where a two-thirds majority vote (67 of 100) is required for conviction and removal from office.
No. While two secretaries have been impeached by the House, neither was convicted and removed by the Senate. William Belknap was acquitted in 1876, and the Senate dismissed the charges against Alejandro Mayorkas in 2024 without a conviction vote. No cabinet member in history has been successfully impeached and removed via this process.
Yes, the U.S. Constitution states that the 'President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States' are subject to impeachment. The Vice President is considered a civil officer. However, no Vice President has ever been impeached. The 25th Amendment provides a separate process for declaring a Vice President unable to serve.
The constitutional standard is 'Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.' Historically, allegations have included corruption (as with Belknap), dereliction of duty, abuse of power, or contempt of Congress. The 'high Crimes and Misdemeanors' clause is broadly defined politically, not legally, meaning Congress has significant discretion in defining impeachable offenses.
Impeachment by the House is akin to an indictment, not a verdict of guilt. The official remains in office unless they resign or are convicted by the Senate. They continue their duties while the Senate trial proceeds. A Senate conviction results in immediate removal from office, and the Senate may also vote to disqualify them from holding future federal office.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 36% |
Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? | Kalshi | 32% |
Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jul 1, 2026? | Kalshi | 10% |
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