Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Minority Leader?

Total Volume

$10.96K

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Markets

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120th Congress: Who will be Senate Minority Leader?

Vol

$10.96K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $10.96K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.96K

100%

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8 markets tracked

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)	Kalshi	52%
Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)	Kalshi	36%
Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)	Kalshi	13%
Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Tom Cotton)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Murphy)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Van Hollen)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Cory Booker)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Brian Schatz)	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

Top Probability

$10.96K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

In 2027 If X wins the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the largest party that does not hold Senate majority status serves as Senate Minority Leader. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 120th Congress: Who will be Senate Minority Leader?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If X wins the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the largest party that does not hold Senate majority status serves as Senate Minority Leader. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Tom Cotton wins the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the largest party that does not hold Senate majority status serves as Senate Minority Leader.
"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Tom Cotton)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $14
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Murphy)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Van Hollen)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Cory Booker)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Brian Schatz)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Minority Leader?

Volume$10.96K

Markets8

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KALSHI

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 52.0¢No 48.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

If John Thune wins the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the largest party that does not hold Senate majority status serves as Senate Minority Leader.

KALSHI

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 35.5¢No 64.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

If Chuck Schumer wins the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the largest party that does not hold Senate majority status serves as Senate Minority Leade

KALSHI

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)

If John Barrasso wins the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the largest party that does not hold Senate majority status serves as Senate Minority Leade

KALSHI

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Tom Cotton)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Tom Cotton)

If Tom Cotton wins the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the largest party that does not hold Senate majority status serves as Senate Minority Leader.

KALSHI

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Murphy)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Murphy)

If Chris Murphy wins the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the largest party that does not hold Senate majority status serves as Senate Minority Leader

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14¢

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120th Congress: Who will be Senate Minority Leader?

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Minority Leader?

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Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Minority Leader?

Markets (8)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Tom Cotton)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Tom Cotton)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Murphy)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Murphy)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Minority Leader?

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Thune)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chuck Schumer)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (John Barrasso)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Tom Cotton)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Tom Cotton)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Murphy)

Who will win the U.S. Senate Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? (Chris Murphy)

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