Name: 2026 Midterms: House Turnout
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

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2026 Midterms: House Turnout | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $975.65

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $975.65

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will there be between 115m and 120m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be between 115m and 120m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?	Poly	28%
Will there be between 100m and 105m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?	Poly	26%
Will there be between 85m and 90m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?	Poly	22%
Will there be between 125m and 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?	Poly	22%
Will there be at least 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?	Poly	22%
Will there be less than 85m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?	Poly	21%
Will there be between 120m and 125m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?	Poly	21%
Will there be between 90m and 95m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?	Poly	20%
Will there be between 110m and 115m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?	Poly	19%
Will there be between 105m and 110m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?	Poly	13%
Will there be between 95m and 100m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?	Poly	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

28%

Top Probability

$975.65

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the repo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 Midterms: House Turnout
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (246 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.

Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.

If the repo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.

Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Re"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $976
* **Total Liquidity:** $35.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.03)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be less than 85m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $104
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be between 100m and 105m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $108
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be between 105m and 110m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $78
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be between 90m and 95m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $101
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be between 95m and 100m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $78
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be between 110m and 115m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $78
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be between 115m and 120m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $77
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will there be between 120m and 125m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $79
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will there be between 85m and 90m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $118
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will there be between 125m and 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $77
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will there be at least 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $77
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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