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![]() | Poly | 74% |

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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Nielsen reported 127,713,000 viewers (Persons 2+, average total viewers) for Super Bowl LIX last year, making it the most viewed super bowl in history. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nielsen reports more than 127,713,000 viewers (Persons 2+/P2+) for Super Bowl LX this year. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A reported number of viewers exactly equal to 127,713,000 will not qualify. If Super Bowl LX is postponed after February 28, or otherwise not completed within this timefr
Prediction markets currently give about a 63% probability that the 2026 Pro Football champions will visit the White House. In simpler terms, traders see a roughly 2 in 3 chance that the winning team will make the traditional trip. This shows the market leans toward the visit happening, but it is not seen as a sure thing. The uncertainty reflects a mix of political, social, and logistical factors that have made this tradition less predictable in recent years.
The current odds are shaped by recent history. The White House visit for championship sports teams is a long-standing tradition, but it has become politically charged. Some teams and players have declined invitations in the past due to disagreements with the sitting administration. The market’s 63% “yes” probability suggests traders think the tradition will likely hold for the 2026 champions, but the significant “no” side shows real doubt.
Two main factors are at play. First, the outcome depends heavily on which team wins and the political leanings of its players and leadership. A team with many players who are politically at odds with the president in 2026 might boycott. Second, it depends on the sitting president extending an invitation. While this is customary, it is not automatic, especially if the administration views the team’s fan base as politically unfavorable.
The key event is the championship game itself, scheduled for early 2026. The identity of the winning team is the biggest unknown. Watch for immediate post-game comments from team leaders about a potential visit. The market will react sharply to any hints of a boycott or, conversely, an eager acceptance.
After the championship, the timeline is fluid. An invitation from the White House typically comes within weeks or months. The market will watch for an official invitation and the team’s formal response. If the visit is scheduled for late 2026, any political turmoil or a contentious presidential election that November could also disrupt plans.
Prediction markets have a mixed record on questions blending sports and politics. They are often good at forecasting purely athletic outcomes, like who will win a game. For this type of event, however, accuracy is harder to judge because each situation is unique. The market’s strength is in aggregating many opinions on the known variables: team tendencies, current political tensions, and the historical pattern of visits.
A major limitation is the long time horizon. The championship is two years away, and the political climate could change significantly. The sitting president might not be the same person who is in office today. These unknowns make the current probability a snapshot of today’s best guess, which will update as new information emerges.
The Kalshi prediction market prices a 63% probability that the 2026 Pro Football champions will visit the White House before the end of that year. This price indicates the market views a visit as more likely than not, but with significant uncertainty. With $283,000 in trading volume, the market has moderate liquidity, suggesting a meaningful number of participants are betting on this political and cultural outcome.
The 63% probability reflects two primary considerations. First, the historical precedent strongly favors a visit. White House visits by championship sports teams are a longstanding tradition, and the political incentives for a sitting president to host a popular winning team are considerable. Second, the market is likely pricing in potential volatility from the 2024 presidential election. The odds may be slightly depressed from a historical baseline due to uncertainty about who will occupy the White House in 2026 and that administration's specific relationship with the league or the sport. A second-term Biden administration or a new Trump administration could each approach the tradition differently, affecting the likelihood.
The single largest catalyst for this market will be the result of the November 2024 U.S. presidential election. A clear victory by a candidate perceived as fully embracing the tradition could push probabilities toward 70% or higher. Conversely, a win by a candidate viewed as less interested in sports or more at odds with the league could drive the "No" share upward. The identity of the 2026 champion team itself is a secondary factor. A team from a politically contentious city or with star players known for declining such invitations could introduce late uncertainty, but the market's current focus is squarely on the political variable.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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