Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Cape Verde election?

Name: Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Cape Verde election?
End: 2026-11-16T04:59:00.000Z

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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Cape Verde election?

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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Cape Verde election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Cape Verde election?	Poly	53%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

53%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round on November 29, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "N

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Cape Verde election?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 16, 2026 (35 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round on November 29, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "N

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round on November 29, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $151
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Cape Verde election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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