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Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?

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Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?

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23 markets tracked

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Jay Clayton)

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Single-Platform Markets(23)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Jay Clayton)	Kalshi	94%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Aaron Lukas)	Kalshi	6%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Bill Pulte)	Kalshi	2%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Devin Nunes)	Kalshi	1%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Michael Ellis)	Kalshi	1%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Elise Stefanik)	Kalshi	1%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (John Ratcliffe)	Kalshi	1%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Derek Harvey)	Kalshi	1%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Rick Crawford)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Mike Waltz)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Chris Stewart)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Pete Hoekstra)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Sebastian Gorka)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Richard Grenell)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Cliff Sims)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Jason Chaffetz)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Mike Flynn)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Stacey Dixon)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Tom Cotton)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Kash Patel)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Scott Perry)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Stephen Miller)	Kalshi	0%
Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Amaryllis Fox Kennedy)	Kalshi	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

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$0.00

Volume

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About This Event

Before January 20th, 2029 If the first new person to be Director of National Intelligence is X before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Acting and Interim holders of the office are not included in the Payout Criterion. Persons confirmed by the Senate to be that position, or appointed via a “recess appointment” are included, even if that recess appointment is later struck down as illegal. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before January 20th, 2029

If the first new person to be Director of National Intelligence is X before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Acting and Interim holders of the office are not included in the Payout Criterion. Persons confirmed by the Senate to be that position, or appointed via a “recess appointment” are included, even if that recess appointment is later struck down as illegal. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the first new person to be Director of National Intelligence is Jay Clayton before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Acting and Interim holders of the office are not included in the Payout Criterion. Persons confirmed by the Senate to be that position, or appointed v"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Jay Clayton)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Pete Hoekstra)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Cliff Sims)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Jason Chaffetz)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Bill Pulte)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Rick Crawford)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Scott Perry)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Elise Stefanik)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Tom Cotton)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Stephen Miller)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Sebastian Gorka)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 12. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Stacey Dixon)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 13. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Richard Grenell)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 14. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Mike Waltz)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 15. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Mike Flynn)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 16. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Michael Ellis)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Kash Patel)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 18. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (John Ratcliffe)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 19. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Devin Nunes)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 20. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Derek Harvey)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 21. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Chris Stewart)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 22. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Aaron Lukas)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Amaryllis Fox Kennedy)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?

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Markets23

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KALSHI

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Jay Clayton)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Jay Clayton)

If the first new person to be Director of National Intelligence is Jay Clayton before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Acting and Interim holders of the office are not included in the Payout Criterion. Persons confirmed by the Senate to be that position, or appointed v

KALSHI

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Aaron Lukas)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Aaron Lukas)

If the first new person to be Director of National Intelligence is Aaron Lukas before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Acting and Interim holders of the office are not included in the Payout Criterion. Persons confirmed by the Senate to be that position, or appointed v

KALSHI

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Bill Pulte)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Bill Pulte)

If the first new person to be Director of National Intelligence is Bill Pulte before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Acting and Interim holders of the office are not included in the Payout Criterion. Persons confirmed by the Senate to be that position, or appointed vi

KALSHI

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Devin Nunes)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Devin Nunes)

If the first new person to be Director of National Intelligence is Devin Nunes before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Acting and Interim holders of the office are not included in the Payout Criterion. Persons confirmed by the Senate to be that position, or appointed v

KALSHI

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Michael Ellis)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.1¢No 99.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Michael Ellis)

If the first new person to be Director of National Intelligence is Michael Ellis before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Acting and Interim holders of the office are not included in the Payout Criterion. Persons confirmed by the Senate to be that position, or appointed

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Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Jay Clayton)

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Events (1)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?

Markets (23)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Jay Clayton)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Jay Clayton)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Aaron Lukas)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Aaron Lukas)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Bill Pulte)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Bill Pulte)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Devin Nunes)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Devin Nunes)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Michael Ellis)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Michael Ellis)

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Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Jay Clayton)

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Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Jay Clayton)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Jay Clayton)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Aaron Lukas)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Aaron Lukas)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Bill Pulte)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Bill Pulte)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Devin Nunes)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Devin Nunes)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Michael Ellis)

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? (Michael Ellis)

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