BNB Up or Down - November 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - November 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "BNB Up or Down - November 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET" [1]. Its rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader should therefore compare this contract only against other contracts with the same resolution wording. A contract that refers to a spot exchange price or a different averaging method would measure something else.
The listed end time is 2026-11-01T14:55:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's closing time in the provider data, not a record of when resolution occurred. The evidence does not show a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z and retrieved at 2026-11-01T12:03:34.025Z [1]. The provider status at observation was "active" [1]. The evidence does not show the status or prices at the time you are reading this, so the figures below describe only that earlier observation.
At observation, the quoted prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The evidence contains no volume or trader information for this contract, so nothing can be said about liquidity or how many participants are involved.
The coverage record lists one market for this event, and it is not marked as a partial sample [1]. The sample warning states that all saved markets for the event are included, but that "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Here the two outcomes are the complete binary pair in the saved record. No other platform or event appears in the evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the quoted prices are where they are. It also does not show any later price path, news, or the actual TWAP values relative to the starting price. The Up and Down prices differ by only 0.01 in this snapshot, and a small gap does not by itself indicate an arbitrage opportunity or a forecast.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - November 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-duration crypto contract on BNB against US dollars. The listed market, titled "BNB Up or Down - November 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET", asks whether the price of BNB will be up or down over a five-minute window. The contract is listed on Polymarket and its categories are given as Crypto [1]. Its rules rely on a time-weighted average price rather than a single trade price. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The window's start and end are both expressed in Eastern Time in the title, while the listed end time in the provider record is 2026-11-01T14:55:00.000Z [1]. The price used for settlement comes from Chainlink. The rules describe the average as generated by Chainlink and name the BNB/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source [1]. The contract also states that it concerns only the price shown in that Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. A reader should therefore treat the outcome as a question about that data feed alone, not about BNB prices on exchanges in general. Because the contract is a short window, the wording of the rules matters more than the broader trend of the asset. The comparison is between the average over the window and the price at the window's start, so a move that occurs and reverses within the window can still affect the result depending on how the average is formed.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average price of BNB/USD, as reported in one specified Chainlink data stream, finishes at or above the price at the start of a five-minute window [1]. It is useful for readers who want to understand how a binary short-term price question is defined, because the settlement rule is narrow. The result depends on the named data stream, the averaging method, and the comparison to the opening price, not on what a reader sees on other trading venues [1]. Readers should also note that the listed status and prices in this record reflect the time of the provider observation and are not a live reading or an executable quote.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this market resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price data does the contract use?
The contract uses the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, which the rules name as the resolution source. The rules say it is not based on any other sources or spot markets [1].
Does a price on another exchange change the outcome?
According to the rules, no. The market concerns only the price in the named Chainlink data stream for BNB/USD, not other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the listed window end?
The provider record lists the end time as 2026-11-01T14:55:00.000Z. The title gives the window in Eastern Time as 9:50AM to 9:55AM on November 1 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.