Fed decision in Mar 2027? | PredictPedia

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Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	60%
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	30%
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	4%
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	4%
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	4%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed decision in Mar 2027?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Mar 17, 2027

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of X on March 17, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on March 17, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at max"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $472.75M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

20¢

Kalshi

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Fed decision in Mar 2027?

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Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?

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Events (1)

Fed decision in Mar 2027?

Markets (5)

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fed decision in Mar 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

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