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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Will Allstate (ALL) beat quarterly earnings?

Will Allstate (ALL) beat quarterly earnings?
Vol

PM $238.77

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Events

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Markets

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Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 95% on Polymarket.

Polymarket

  1. Yes95%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $238.77

Reported volume · provider units

1

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Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

About This Event

As of market creation, Allstate is estimated to release earnings on November 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Allstate’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.97 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Allstate reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $6.97 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Allstate releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.

Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The contract asks whether Allstate (ALL) will beat its quarterly earnings consensus. It resolves "Yes" if Allstate reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $6.97 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release [1]. The $6.97 threshold is the Street consensus estimate, which the rules say is fixed "as of market creation" [1]. The rules also say the figure will be taken from the company's official earnings documents, with fallback sources if non-GAAP EPS is not released [1].

The rules include several conditions that affect resolution. Restatements or revisions to the initially announced non-GAAP figure generally do not count, except for obvious and immediate mistakes [1]. If Allstate does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, the market resolves to "No" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T22:00:00.000Z [1]. The rules describe November 4, 2026 as the estimated earnings date, which is a contract term and not a confirmed announcement [1].

Reading the snapshot

The saved snapshot shows one market with two outcomes. "Yes" is priced at 0.875 and "No" at 0.125 [1]. These are observed prices from a snapshot taken at 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z, retrieved at 2026-10-27T13:54:57.546Z [1]. They are not live quotes, are not executable prices, and do not establish a verified probability. The snapshot does not include volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each view.

The sample is complete for this event. The coverage record lists one market in the saved event, with no partial sample [1]. Because only one contract is present, there is no cross-platform comparison in this evidence. Any comparison with a differently worded earnings contract would need its own rules, close time, and resolution source before the prices could be read side by side.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show Allstate's actual reported figures, whether the earnings release has occurred, or the final resolution. It also does not explain why the observed prices took their current levels. The snapshot is from earlier on 2026-10-27 and may not reflect prices at the time a reader views this page. Readers should check the provider's current listing and the company's official earnings documents once they are published.

References

  1. Polymarket: Will Allstate (ALL) beat quarterly earnings?. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTC

This saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.

Overview

This PredictPedia entry covers a finance contract asking whether Allstate (ALL) will beat its quarterly earnings. The contract is tied to the non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) figure that Allstate reports in its next quarterly earnings release. It resolves to "Yes" if the reported non-GAAP EPS is greater than $6.97, the Street consensus estimate for the relevant quarter as of market creation [1]. Otherwise it resolves to "No" [1]. The source states that Allstate is estimated to release earnings on November 4, 2026 [1]. That date is an estimate written into the contract at creation, not a confirmed announcement. The contract's listed end time is 2026-11-04T22:00:00Z [1]. The $6.97 threshold is taken from the consensus estimate, not from an actual reported result. The contract states that the strike price reflects the selected consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation [1]. Because the threshold is fixed at creation, the contract compares one reported figure against one earlier estimate. The rules also set out fallbacks. If Allstate releases earnings without a non-GAAP EPS figure, the contract uses the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha [1]. If no such figure is published within 96 hours of the 4:00 p.m. ET market close on the announcement day, the contract falls back to GAAP EPS from the company's official earnings documents, or from SeekingAlpha if it is not published there [1]. For this purpose GAAP EPS means diluted GAAP EPS, or basic GAAP EPS if diluted is not published [1]. If no GAAP figure is available at that point, the contract resolves to "No" [1]. Figures are rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding, and all figures are in USD unless stated otherwise [1]. Later restatements or revisions to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure do not count, except for obvious and immediate mistakes [1].

Why It Matters

The contract measures whether a single reported earnings figure exceeds a fixed threshold. Its resolution depends on the company's official earnings documents or on named secondary sources, and on the timing rules in the contract [1]. Readers should check the full rule text in the source for any detail beyond the summary here [1]. The contract does not measure the company's stock price, its full financial performance, or any other quarter.

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

What single number decides this contract?

The contract is decided by Allstate's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter, as reported in its next quarterly earnings release. A result above $6.97 resolves to "Yes" and anything else resolves to "No" [1].

Where does the $6.97 threshold come from?

The threshold is the Street consensus estimate for Allstate's non-GAAP EPS as of market creation [1]. It is not an actual reported result.

What happens if Allstate does not report non-GAAP EPS?

The contract uses the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96 hours of market close on the announcement day, it falls back to GAAP EPS, and if no GAAP figure is available the contract resolves to "No" [1].

What if earnings are released late?

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, the contract resolves to "No" [1].

Do later corrections to the reported EPS change the outcome?

Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure do not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes [1].

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Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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