GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Name: Argentina Presidential Election Winner
End: 2027-10-24T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$631.14K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Vol

$631.14K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $631.14K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $631.14K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Poly	53%
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Poly	36%
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Poly	8%
Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Poly	3%
Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

53%

Top Probability

$631.14K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, thi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Argentina Presidential Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 24, 2027 (414 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. 

This market includes any potential second round. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, thi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. 

This market includes any potential second round. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $631.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $165.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.82)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2027): Vol $165.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2027): Vol $39.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2027): Vol $27.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2027): Vol $112.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2027): Vol $57.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2027): Vol $34.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2027): Vol $28.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2027): Vol $48.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2027): Vol $35.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2027): Vol $41.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2027): Vol $41.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics