Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?

Total Volume

$167.03K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?

Vol

$167.03K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $167.03K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $167.03K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$167.03K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If a 74 mph or higher hurricane makes landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season, then the market resolves to Yes. This market encompasses the primary southeastern islands of the state of Hawaii. Those islands are: Niʻihau, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Kahoʻolawe, Maui, and the island of Hawai'i. It does not include the Midway Atoll, nor the Northwestern Islands, also known as the Leeward Hawaiian Islands. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If a 74 mph or higher hurricane makes landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season, then the market resolves to Yes. This market encompasses the primary southeastern islands of the state of Hawaii. Those islands are: Niʻihau, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Kahoʻolawe, Maui, and the island of Hawai'i. It does not include the Midway Atoll, nor the Northwestern Islands, also known as the Leeward Hawaiian Islands. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a 74 mph or higher hurricane makes landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market encompasses the primary southeastern islands of the state of Hawaii. Those islands are: Niʻihau, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Kahoʻolawe, Maui,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $167.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $167.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather