Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

How many Truths will Trump delete in Oct 2026?

Total Volume

$1.23K

Events

Markets

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How many Truths will Trump delete in Oct 2026?

Vol

$1.23K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.23K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.23K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 5?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 5?	Kalshi	57%
Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 10?	Kalshi	31%
Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 15?	Kalshi	12%
Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 20?	Kalshi	8%
Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 25?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

57%

Top Probability

$1.23K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Oct 2026 If Donald Trump deletes at least X Truth Social posts in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only Truth Social posts created in October 2026 will qualify for this market. Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Truths will Trump delete in Oct 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Oct 2026

If Donald Trump deletes at least X Truth Social posts in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only Truth Social posts created in October 2026 will qualify for this market. Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Donald Trump deletes at least 5 Truth Social posts in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only Truth Social posts created in October 2026 will qualify for this market. Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 5?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $375
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 25?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $764
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 20?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 15?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 10?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $95
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many Truths will Trump delete in Oct 2026?

Volume$1.23K

Markets5

5 of 5

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KALSHI

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 5?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 57.0¢No 43.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 5?

If Donald Trump deletes at least 5 Truth Social posts in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only Truth Social posts created in October 2026 will qualify for this market. Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included.

KALSHI

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 10?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.5¢No 69.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 10?

If Donald Trump deletes at least 10 Truth Social posts in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only Truth Social posts created in October 2026 will qualify for this market. Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included.

KALSHI

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 15?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 15?

If Donald Trump deletes at least 15 Truth Social posts in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only Truth Social posts created in October 2026 will qualify for this market. Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included.

KALSHI

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 20?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 20?

If Donald Trump deletes at least 20 Truth Social posts in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only Truth Social posts created in October 2026 will qualify for this market. Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included.

KALSHI

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 25?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 25?

If Donald Trump deletes at least 25 Truth Social posts in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only Truth Social posts created in October 2026 will qualify for this market. Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included.

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23¢

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How many Truths will Trump delete in Oct 2026?

How many Truths will Trump delete in Oct 2026?

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Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 5?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

How many Truths will Trump delete in Oct 2026?

Markets (5)

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 5?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 5?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 10?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 10?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 15?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 15?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 20?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 20?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 25?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 25?

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Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 5?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many Truths will Trump delete in Oct 2026?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 5?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 5?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 10?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 10?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 15?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 15?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 20?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 20?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 25?

Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Oct 2026 be at least 25?

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