This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

Name: Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$883.79K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

Vol

$883.79K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $883.79K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $883.79K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Poly	80%
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?	Poly	17%
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?	Poly	3%
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?	Poly	3%
Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?	Poly	1%
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

80%

Top Probability

$883.79K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding sh"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $883.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.2K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 107.56)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $297.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $108.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $74.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $111.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $99.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $192.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech