Name: Google Gemini 3 score on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

Google Gemini 3 score on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | PredictPedia

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?	Poly	16%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?	Poly	5%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Google Gemini 3 score on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini 3 model with a score of at least the specified score by the specified January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini 3 model with a score of at least the specified score by the specified January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s L"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $518.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.4K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 95.89)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $78.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $440.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Next Market Closes

15d 16h remaining

Jan 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

10¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/wsg5xF" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Google Gemini 3 score on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

Google Gemini 3 score on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Google Gemini 3 score on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Google Gemini 3 score on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Markets (2)

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Community Discussion

Next Market Closes

Market Insights

Social Sentiment

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Google Gemini 3 score on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Related News & Context

Next Market Closes

Share

Embed Widget