This prediction market topic concerns the possibility of a new formal nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran being reached before January 1, 2027. A 'Yes' resolution requires a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both nations that imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, and provides sanctions relief to Iran. The agreement may be bilateral or multilateral, provided both the U.S. and Iran are participants. The topic emerges from the collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the subsequent U.S. withdrawal in 2018, and Iran's accelerated nuclear advancements. Recent diplomatic efforts, including indirect talks mediated by Oman and Qatar, have kept the prospect of a deal alive, though significant obstacles remain. Interest in this market stems from its implications for Middle East stability, global non-proliferation efforts, oil markets, and the foreign policy legacies of the involved administrations. The 2026 timeframe coincides with a potential new U.S. presidential term and Iranian presidential elections, making it a critical window for diplomatic breakthrough or further escalation.

Historical Context

The modern diplomatic history of Iran's nuclear program is defined by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Negotiated by the Obama administration alongside the UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China, the JCPOA imposed strict limits on Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) repeatedly verified Iranian compliance until 2019. In May 2018, President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the agreement, re-imposing and expanding severe economic sanctions under a 'maximum pressure' campaign. In response, beginning in 2019, Iran incrementally breached the deal's key restrictions, increasing uranium enrichment levels, stockpiles, and advancing centrifuge research. Efforts to revive the deal began with the Biden administration in 2021, with indirect talks in Vienna. These negotiations stalled repeatedly over issues like the scope of sanctions relief, guarantees against future U.S. withdrawal, and the status of the IAEA's investigation into undeclared nuclear material. The 2022 protests in Iran and the country's military support for Russia in Ukraine further poisoned the diplomatic atmosphere, creating a cycle of escalation with no functioning agreement in place.

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