GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

US-Iran nuclear deal?

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US-Iran nuclear deal?

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8 markets tracked

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Jan 20, 2029)	Kalshi	75%
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2028)	Kalshi	61%
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2027)	Kalshi	32%
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before December)	Kalshi	28%
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before November)	Kalshi	20%
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before October)	Kalshi	17%
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before September)	Kalshi	13%
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August? (Before August)	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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75%

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About This Event

In 2026 If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before X 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement also made with other countries, i.e. multilaterally, is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that, 1, imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enric

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US-Iran nuclear deal?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before X 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement also made with other countries, i.e. multilaterally, is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that, 1, imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enric

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear de"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before December)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before November)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before October)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2028)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before September)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August? (Before August)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.1% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2027)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

US-Iran nuclear deal?

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KALSHI

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 74.5¢No 25.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear d

KALSHI

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2028)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2028)

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear de

KALSHI

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2027)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.5¢No 68.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2027)

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear de

KALSHI

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before December)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.5¢No 72.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before December)

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear de

KALSHI

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before November)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before November)

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear de

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Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

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Events (1)

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Markets (8)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2028)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2028)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2027)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2027)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before December)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before December)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before November)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before November)

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Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2028)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2028)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2027)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before 2027)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before December)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before December)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before November)

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before November)

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