Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?

Name: Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$33.61K

Events

Markets

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Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?

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Polymarket

markets · $33.61K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $33.61K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?	Poly	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$33.61K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to c

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to c

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $33.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $12.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.77)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $33.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

7¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/x0X-JB" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?"></iframe>

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Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?

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Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)