Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEntertainment

National Book Award for Fiction

Total Volume

$2.01K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

National Book Award for Fiction

Vol

$2.01K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.01K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.01K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Tie win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Tie win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	50%
Will Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	47%
Will Mad Eden win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	47%
Will Paradiso 17 win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	45%
Will Beginning Middle End win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	45%
Will Dèy win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	42%
Will Python’s Kiss win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	37%
Will Passengers win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	23%
Will The Renovation win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	23%
Will Red Ants win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	19%
Will The Disappearers win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$2.01K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 | Fiction If X wins the award for Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** National Book Award for Fiction
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026 | Fiction

If X wins the award for Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If 'Tie' wins the award for Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occ"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tie win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will The Renovation win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $170
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Red Ants win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $232
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Python’s Kiss win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Passengers win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $170
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Paradiso 17 win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $9
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Mad Eden win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will The Disappearers win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Dèy win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Beginning Middle End win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEntertainment

National Book Award for Fiction

Volume$2.01K

Markets11

11 of 11

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Tie win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Tie win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Tie' wins the award for Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occ

KALSHI

Will Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.5¢No 53.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You' wins the award for Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close a

KALSHI

Will Mad Eden win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.5¢No 53.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Mad Eden win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Mad Eden' wins the award for Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the even

KALSHI

Will Paradiso 17 win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 45.0¢No 55.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Paradiso 17 win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Paradiso 17' wins the award for Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the e

KALSHI

Will Beginning Middle End win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.5¢No 55.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Beginning Middle End win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Beginning Middle End' wins the award for Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close and expire early

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34¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/x0dTDR" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="National Book Award for Fiction"></iframe>

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Will Tie win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

National Book Award for Fiction

Markets (11)

Will Tie win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Tie win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Mad Eden win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Mad Eden win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Paradiso 17 win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Paradiso 17 win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Beginning Middle End win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Beginning Middle End win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

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Will Tie win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

National Book Award for Fiction

Will Tie win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Tie win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Mad Eden win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Mad Eden win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Paradiso 17 win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Paradiso 17 win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Beginning Middle End win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Beginning Middle End win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

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