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$1.71K
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Before 2027 If President Trump vetoes at least X bills or resolutions before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. X “pocket veto” is encompassed within the Payout Criterion. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign an 80% probability that former President Donald Trump will veto at least one bill or resolution before January 1, 2027, if he wins the 2024 election. This high confidence level, translating to an implied 4-in-5 chance, indicates the market views a veto as the expected outcome of a potential second Trump term. The thin trading volume of approximately $2,000 across related markets on Kalshi suggests this consensus is based more on strong directional sentiment than on heavy, liquid betting.
Two primary factors are shaping this high probability. First, historical precedent is a powerful driver. In his first term, President Trump issued 10 vetoes, including the high-profile veto of a resolution to block his national emergency declaration for border wall funding. This established a clear willingness to use the veto power, especially on legislation conflicting with his policy agenda. Second, the current political landscape suggests continued divided government is likely. Markets are pricing in a high probability of a Republican presidency coupled with at least one chamber of Congress controlled by Democrats, a recipe for legislative clashes that typically result in vetoes. The market is essentially betting that partisan dynamics will force at least one bill to Trump's desk that he will feel compelled to reject.
The primary catalyst that would dramatically lower these odds is a Republican sweep of the presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives in the 2024 elections. Unified Republican control would significantly decrease the likelihood of Congress passing legislation opposed by a President Trump, reducing veto opportunities. Conversely, the odds could rise even further from their already elevated level if early 2025 sees a surge in symbolic legislative challenges from a Democratic-controlled Congress, such as bills related to abortion rights or climate policy, designed to force a veto. The market will be most sensitive to the election results in November 2024 and the subsequent legislative agenda set in early 2025.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the legislative activity of a potential second Trump administration, specifically focusing on how many bills or resolutions President Donald Trump might veto before January 1, 2027. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the number of vetoes meets or exceeds a predetermined threshold, X, which includes both regular vetoes and pocket vetoes. A pocket veto occurs when a president withholds signature on a bill after Congress has adjourned, preventing it from becoming law without a formal veto message. The market will close early if the threshold is reached before the expiration date. This topic sits at the intersection of presidential power, congressional dynamics, and political forecasting, attracting interest from political analysts, investors, and observers of U.S. governance. Interest stems from the historical rarity of vetoes in recent decades and the potential for a more confrontational relationship between a President Trump and a potentially divided Congress. The outcome serves as a proxy measure for legislative gridlock, presidential assertiveness, and the effectiveness of the opposition party in passing legislation that reaches the president's desk.
The presidential veto is a constitutional power outlined in Article I, Section 7, serving as a check on congressional power. Historically, veto use has varied dramatically by administration. Franklin D. Roosevelt holds the record with 635 vetoes over 12 years, while several 19th-century presidents issued over 100. In the modern era, the frequency has declined. From 1981 to 2020, presidents averaged fewer than 10 vetoes per term. George W. Bush vetoed 12 bills, Barack Obama vetoed 12, and Donald Trump vetoed 10 in their first terms. Bill Clinton, facing a Republican Congress after 1994, vetoed 37 bills. The modern precedent suggests that unified government (where the president's party controls both chambers of Congress) typically results in fewer vetoes, as seen with Trump's first two years (only 1 veto) compared to his last two with a Democratic House (9 vetoes). The pocket veto, a potent tool when Congress adjourns, was used 18 times by George H.W. Bush and has been a subject of legal debate over its applicability during intra-session recesses. The historical pattern indicates that veto frequency is a strong indicator of inter-branch conflict.
The number of presidential vetoes is a concrete metric for measuring political dysfunction and the balance of power in Washington. A high veto count signals deep ideological divides and an inability to find legislative compromise, which can stall government action on critical issues like the budget, healthcare, and national security. This gridlock can have direct economic consequences, creating uncertainty for businesses, potentially leading to government shutdowns if spending bills are vetoed, and delaying key infrastructure or tax legislation. For citizens, it means that broadly popular policies may fail to become law due to partisan stalemate, eroding public trust in government's capacity to solve problems. The outcome of this market also provides insight into the operational style of a second Trump administration, indicating whether it would pursue an aggressive, confrontational approach with Congress or seek more transactional, deal-making relationships. This has downstream consequences for judicial confirmations, diplomatic initiatives, and the overall stability of federal governance.
As of late 2024, this is a forward-looking predictive question. Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election. The 2024 elections will determine the composition of the 119th Congress (2025-2027), which will be the body interacting with a potential second Trump administration. Political analysts are actively modeling scenarios ranging from unified Republican control to a Democratic-controlled House or Senate. The policy agendas of both parties are being formulated, with areas of likely conflict including immigration, tax policy, entitlement spending, and Ukraine aid, all of which could become veto bait. No specific legislation has yet been proposed that would be subject to a 2025 or 2026 veto.
A pocket veto occurs when the president does not sign a bill and Congress adjourns before the 10-day signing period expires. The bill does not become law. For the purposes of this prediction market, a pocket veto counts equally with a regular veto toward the total threshold, X.
Yes. If Congress passes a bill, the president vetoes it, and then Congress repasses the same or a very similar bill which is vetoed again, each veto event counts separately toward the total. This happened with several war powers resolutions during Trump's first term.
A government shutdown is a possible consequence if the president vetoes one or more of the annual appropriations bills and no continuing resolution is in place. This does not affect the veto count itself, but it highlights the high-stakes nature of such vetoes. The market resolves purely on the number of vetoes, not their consequences.
Historically, vetoes are far more common during periods of divided government, when the opposition party controls one or both chambers of Congress and can pass legislation opposed by the president. Unified government, where the president's party controls Congress, typically results in fewer vetoes as legislation is negotiated beforehand to secure presidential support.
No. A signing statement, where a president signs a bill but declares an intent to disregard or narrowly interpret certain provisions, is not a veto. Only a formal veto or pocket veto, where the bill is rejected and does not become law, counts toward the resolution of this market.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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5 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Trump veto at least 1 bills before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 80% |
Will Trump veto at least 2 bills before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 47% |
Will Trump veto at least 3 bills before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 40% |
Will Trump veto at least 4 bills before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 27% |
Will Trump veto at least 5 bills before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 21% |
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