Hawaii Governor Election Margin of Victory
PM $21.7K
1
10
Hawaii Governor Election Margin of Victory
PM $21.7K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 40-45% at 22%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 40-45%22%
- Democrat 35-40%20%
- Democrat 30-35%18%
- Democrat 45%+15.4%
- Democrat 25-30%13%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $21.7K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The three Polymarket and Kalshi events in this snapshot use different wording, so their prices answer different questions. The Kalshi contract on the Democratic party resolves to Yes if a representative of that party "is inaugurated as the governor of Hawaii pursuant to the 2026 election," and it "is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner" [1]. The Polymarket winner contract resolves on the 2026 election winner, using a resolution source of "the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC," with official certification as the fallback if the three sources do not call the race for the same candidate [2].
The Polymarket margin of victory event is a bracketed market. It measures "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [3]. Its rules say that if the result falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket [3]. The rules also state that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [3].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source retrieval time is 2026-10-15T21:42:47.431Z. These are snapshot times only. The prices below are not executable quotes, and they do not show current conditions.
On Kalshi, the Democratic Yes contract is listed at 0.9855 and the Republican Yes contract at 0.012 [1]. On Polymarket's winner event, the Democrats Yes price is 0.9925 and the Republicans Yes price is 0.007 [2]. These are separate platforms and separate contracts, so they should not be averaged or treated as one consensus figure. A gap between them is not an arbitrage signal without checking fees, settlement terms, and execution conditions.
The Polymarket margin event includes all 10 saved markets, with no partial sample flagged [3]. The Democratic bracket Yes prices are 0.0005 for 10 to 15 points, 0.0005 for 15 to 20, 0.0025 for 20 to 25, 0.235 for 25 to 30, 0.2 for 30 to 35, 0.175 for 35 to 40, 0.18 for 40 to 45, and 0.168 for 45 points or more. Lower-margin brackets are also included, such as 0 to 10 points at 0.0015 [3]. A lower price on an omitted bracket is not implied, because the sample warning states that the providers may not list every possible outcome [3].
What remains uncertain
The saved records list different end dates. The Kalshi Democratic and Republican records show 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z, but the excerpt says the listed end time is "not supplied" and that the market "will close early following the first person to be sworn in" [1]. The Polymarket records list 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [2][3]. The Polymarket margin contract says the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026," which is contract text, not confirmation of the event schedule [3].
This snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not show trader counts, recent news, or how accurate these markets have been historically. Volume is not liquidity. Readers should check the full rules on each platform before comparing outcomes.
References
- Kalshi: Hawaii Governor winner?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
- Polymarket: Hawaii Governor Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
- Polymarket: Hawaii Governor Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
Hawaii's 2026 gubernatorial election is the subject of several prediction market contracts. The contract discussed here is a margin of victory market, which resolves according to the gap between the top two candidates. The rules define the margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [3]. Each percentage is found by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [3]. The contract is organized into brackets of margin ranges, and it names Democratic and Republican nominees as the two party options. Independent candidates do not count as either party option [3]. The rules describe the 2026 election as currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [3]. The saved provider record lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [3]. That listed end time is a field in the contract record and should not be read as a reported result or a certified outcome. Resolution follows a defined order. The primary source is the official results of the election as published by the state electoral authority that certifies results. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [3]. If a recount is started before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [3]. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [3]. If a party nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [3]. Two winner contracts are also listed for the same race. The Polymarket winner contract resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If the three do not call it for the same candidate, it resolves based on official certification [2]. The Kalshi contract resolves to Yes if a representative of the stated party is inaugurated as governor pursuant to the 2026 election. It may be determined early after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, and it closes early after the first person is sworn in as governor under the 2026 election [1].
Historical Context
Earlier Hawaii elections provide background on the state's voting patterns, though they do not describe the 2026 race. Wikipedia's article on the 2004 United States Senate election in Hawaii says that incumbent Democrat Daniel Inouye won re-election to an eighth term "in yet another landslide with over 75% of the vote," and it notes that the state had a "relatively close single-digit margin of victory" for John Kerry in the concurrent presidential election [4]. Wikipedia's article on the 2008 United States presidential election in Hawaii states that the election took place on November 4, 2008, and that voters chose four electors to the Electoral College [5].
Why It Matters
The margin of victory contract measures how large the winning candidate's advantage is, not simply which party wins. Because the margin is calculated from the share of valid votes for the top two candidates, the result depends on the final vote shares and the definition in the rules [3]. Its brackets split the possible margin into ranges, and the rules specify how an exact boundary value is assigned to a bracket and how ties are handled [3]. The winner contracts measure a different question, namely which party or candidate wins the governorship. Their resolution sources and timing differ from the margin contract. One relies on the calls of named news organizations or certification, and the other can resolve early after a media projection [1][2]. Traders comparing contracts should read each rule set separately because the contracts resolve on different measures and under different procedures [1][2][3].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [3].
Do independent candidates count in the margin of victory contract?
No. The rules say that independent candidates will not represent options for either party, and the Democratic and Republican nominees are the options for the contract's party categories [3].
What happens if a recount is requested?
If a recount is initiated before the vote total is official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [3].
What happens if the result is not known by June 30, 2027?
The margin of victory market resolves to "Other" if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [3].
How do the Polymarket and Kalshi winner contracts decide the outcome?
The Polymarket winner contract resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or on official certification if they do not agree [2]. The Kalshi contract can be determined early after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, and it closes after the first person is sworn in as governor under the 2026 election [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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