Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?

Total Volume

$3.27K

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Markets

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Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.27K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.27K

100%

Kalshi leads

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1 market tracked

Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in civil court?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in civil court?	Kalshi	23%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$3.27K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before his term ends If Donald J. Trump is held liable for civil damages in any court for any action related to the Capitol Attack on January 6, 2021, before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before his term ends

If Donald J. Trump is held liable for civil damages in any court for any action related to the Capitol Attack on January 6, 2021, before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Donald J. Trump is held liable for civil damages in any court for any action related to the Capitol Attack on January 6, 2021, before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.82M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in civil court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

23¢

Kalshi

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Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?

Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?

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Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in civil court?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)