$189.83K
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$189.83K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market refers on the tennis match between Venus Williams and Ajla Tomljanovic in the ATX Open, scheduled for February 23 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Williams' if Venus Williams advances against Ajla Tomljanovic. This market will resolve to 'Tomljanovic' if Ajla Tomljanovic advances against Venus Williams. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to
Prediction markets give Venus Williams about a 1 in 4 chance (25%) of beating Ajla Tomljanovic in their ATX Open match. This means traders collectively see Tomljanovic as the strong favorite, with roughly a 3 in 4 chance (75%) of winning. The market's most confident forecast is on a specific detail: a 100% probability that the first set will feature more than 9.5 total games. This suggests traders expect a competitive opening set, even if they believe Tomljanovic will ultimately win the match.
The odds reflect the current realities of both players' careers. Venus Williams, a 7-time Grand Slam champion, is 43 years old and has played very few matches in the past year due to injuries. Her legendary power and experience remain, but maintaining consistent form has become difficult. Ajla Tomljanovic, 30, is a seasoned pro known for her solid baseline game. She is also working her way back from a knee injury that sidelined her for most of 2023, but she has played more recently than Williams. Historically, Tomljanovic has performed well in this kind of matchup, famously defeating Serena Williams at the 2022 US Open. The market is essentially betting that Tomljanovic's more recent activity and consistent style will overcome Williams' sporadic schedule and the physical demands of a full match.
The match is scheduled for Friday, February 23, at 11:00 AM ET. Any official news before then about either player's health or withdrawal would immediately shift the odds. Once play begins, watch the first set closely. If it is one-sided and ends quickly (with 9 or fewer games), it would contradict the market's most certain prediction and could signal a faster-than-expected outcome. A long, tight first set would align with market expectations and likely keep the odds stable.
Prediction markets are generally reliable for forecasting sports outcomes because they aggregate many informed opinions, including from fans who follow tennis closely. For early-round tennis matches without major upsets, they tend to be accurate. The main limitation here is player health. Williams' fitness is a known question mark, and a last-minute physical issue for either player could make the pre-match probabilities obsolete. The 100% confidence in the first set game total is unusually high for any market and shows where traders have the strongest consensus.
Prediction markets assign Venus Williams a 20% chance of defeating Ajla Tomljanovic in this ATX Open match. A price of 20¢ on Williams translates to a one-in-five probability, indicating the market views an upset as possible but unlikely. The opposing contract for Tomljanovic to win trades at 80¢, establishing her as the clear favorite. With $190,000 in total volume across related markets, there is sufficient liquidity for these odds to reflect informed sentiment rather than speculative noise.
Two primary elements explain Tomljanovic's status as the heavy favorite. First, current form and ranking create a stark contrast. Tomljanovic, ranked inside the WTA Top 100, is a consistent tour-level competitor. Venus Williams, a former world No. 1 and seven-time Grand Slam champion, is now ranked outside the Top 400 and plays a limited schedule. Second, physical readiness is a major concern. Williams has played only one match in the past year, a first-round loss in Cincinnati last August. Facing a seasoned opponent in Tomljanovic, who reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals in 2021 and 2022, without recent match play is a significant disadvantage. The market is pricing in the high probability that Williams' legendary power and court coverage have diminished.
The match is scheduled for February 23, leaving little time for the consensus to shift dramatically. However, two scenarios could cause last-minute price movement. Any indication of a Williams injury withdrawal would immediately void the market. Conversely, a report of a Tomljanovic physical issue, however minor, could cause Williams' contract price to rise from 20¢. Barring such news, the odds will likely remain stable. The market's structure shows high confidence in a specific game total for the first set, but the outright winner market has settled on a clear probabilistic outcome based on the available evidence.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on a first-round tennis match at the 2025 ATX Open in Austin, Texas, between Venus Williams and Ajla Tomljanovic. The market resolves based on which player advances to the second round of the WTA 250 tournament. The match is scheduled for February 23 at 11:00 AM Eastern Time. The ATX Open is a hardcourt event that began in 2023 and is part of the WTA Tour's early-season swing in the United States. This particular matchup has drawn significant attention due to the contrasting career stages and narratives of the two competitors. Venus Williams, a seven-time Grand Slam singles champion and former world No. 1, is a 44-year-old wild card entry continuing her legendary career. Ajla Tomljanovic, a 31-year-old Australian ranked inside the top 100, is known for her consistent baseline game and for ending Serena Williams's career at the 2022 US Open. Interest in this market stems from questions about Venus Williams's competitive level against a solid tour professional, the potential for a notable upset or a symbolic victory, and the unpredictable nature of matches involving an all-time great in the latter stages of her career. The outcome will influence the tournament draw and provide a data point on Williams's current form.
The historical context of this match involves the individual careers of both players and a specific prior encounter. Venus Williams turned professional in 1994 and dominated women's tennis in the early 2000s alongside her sister Serena. She has won Wimbledon five times and the US Open twice. Her career has been prolonged despite managing Sjögren's syndrome, an autoimmune disease diagnosed in 2011. Ajla Tomljanovic turned professional in 2009 and has steadily built a reputation as a tough opponent on all surfaces, with several deep runs at major tournaments. The two players have met once before on the WTA Tour. That match occurred in the first round of the 2019 Italian Open on clay, where Tomljanovic defeated Williams 6-2, 6-7(3), 6-2. That result provides a competitive precedent, though it was nearly six years ago and on a different surface. More broadly, Tomljanovic's victory over Serena Williams at the 2022 US Open adds a layer of narrative, as she now faces the other Williams sister in a high-profile early-round match.
This match matters for its symbolic value within women's tennis and its impact on the athletes' seasons. For Venus Williams, a win would demonstrate her enduring ability to compete at the tour level and could inspire discussions about longevity in professional sports. A loss might lead to further questions about her future competitive plans. For Ajla Tomljanovic, defeating a legend like Williams provides a confidence boost, but a loss to a much lower-ranked, older opponent could be seen as a significant setback. Economically, the match drives viewership, ticket sales, and betting activity for the ATX Open, a relatively new tournament building its identity. Socially, it engages multiple generations of tennis fans, from those who followed Williams's prime to newer fans familiar with Tomljanovic. The result will be analyzed for what it says about the transition between eras in the sport.
As of February 2025, both players are on the official entry list for the ATX Open. The draw has been made, placing them against each other in the first round. Venus Williams has played no official WTA matches in the 2025 season prior to this event. Ajla Tomljanovic began her 2025 season at the Australian Open, where she lost in the first round to Beatriz Haddad Maia. She then played a Billie Jean King Cup tie for Australia in early February. Both players are presumed to be training specifically for this hardcourt tournament. The match is scheduled to proceed on February 23 at 11:00 AM ET, barring any last-minute withdrawals or scheduling changes.
The match is scheduled to start at 11:00 AM Eastern Time on Sunday, February 23, 2025. Match times at tennis tournaments can change based on the length of prior matches on the same court.
In the United States, WTA 250 tournaments like the ATX Open are typically broadcast on Tennis Channel or streamed on services like TennisTV. International viewers should check local sports broadcasters or the WTA's official streaming partners.
Yes, they have played one official WTA Tour match. Ajla Tomljanovic defeated Venus Williams 6-2, 6-7(3), 6-2 in the first round of the 2019 Italian Open, which was played on clay courts.
Entering the 2025 ATX Open, Venus Williams's ranking is outside the top 400. She plays using a protected ranking or wild card invitations to enter tournaments, as her current ranking does not allow direct entry.
According to this prediction market's rules, if the match is canceled entirely, ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from February 23 without a winner, the market will resolve as 'Canceled' and no outcome will be paid out.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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