This prediction market topic focuses on forecasting the minimum temperature recorded in Denver, Colorado on January 15, 2026. The market resolves based on official data from the National Weather Service's Climatological Report, specifically the Daily Climate Report for the station identifier CLIDEN, which corresponds to Denver International Airport, the city's primary official weather observation site. Participants are essentially wagering on whether the daily low temperature will fall below a specific threshold, denoted as Y degrees Fahrenheit. This type of weather derivative market allows individuals and institutions to hedge against or speculate on specific meteorological outcomes, connecting financial markets directly to climatological data. Interest in such markets stems from various sectors including agriculture, energy trading, event planning, and insurance, where temperature extremes have significant economic consequences. The specific date, January 15, falls squarely within Denver's coldest period, making it a relevant target for examining winter weather volatility and the accuracy of seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting models. The resolution relies on the National Weather Service's Weather Forecast Office in Boulder, Colorado (WFO BOU), which maintains and publishes the authoritative climate data for the region, ensuring a transparent and standardized outcome for the market.

Historical Context

Denver's climate is characterized by a semi-arid, continental regime with significant temperature extremes, particularly in winter. The city's official weather station was relocated to Denver International Airport (DIA) in 1995, establishing the CLIDEN record. Historically, January is Denver's coldest month, with an average daily minimum temperature of 16.2 degrees Fahrenheit. Extreme cold events are often tied to specific atmospheric patterns. For example, a major Arctic outbreak from December 21-23, 2022, brought Denver's temperature down to -24 degrees Fahrenheit, the second coldest reading ever recorded in the city. The all-time record low for any date is -29 degrees Fahrenheit, set on January 9, 1875. More recently, January 15 specifically has seen a wide historical range. On January 15, 2023, the low was a mild 31 degrees Fahrenheit, while on January 15, 2017, it dropped to just 1 degree Fahrenheit. These variations highlight the high volatility of Denver's winter weather, driven by its position east of the Rocky Mountains, where cold air damming and chinook winds can cause rapid temperature swings of 40 degrees Fahrenheit or more within hours. Long-term climate trends also provide context, with NOAA data showing a warming trend in Denver's winter minimum temperatures over recent decades, though extreme cold events remain a persistent feature of the climate system.

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