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$2.67K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by January 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will re
Prediction markets are pricing in a high likelihood that "People We Meet on Vacation" will secure the #2 spot on Netflix's global English movies chart for the week ending January 19, 2026. On Polymarket, the contract for this outcome is trading at 85 cents, implying an 85% probability. This high confidence level suggests traders view the film's position as nearly certain, with only a 15% chance of an upset from another title.
Two primary factors are driving this consensus. First, the film's performance trajectory is critical. "People We Meet on Vacation," a romantic comedy adaptation of Emily Henry's popular novel, debuted strongly. If it entered the Top 10 at a high rank the prior week, the market is likely extrapolating sustained viewer momentum, as romantic comedies often show stable week-over-week retention on the platform during their initial release window.
Second, the competitive landscape appears weak. The market's high probability indicates traders see no other new major film release or existing catalog title with enough global appeal to challenge for the #2 position specifically. The #1 spot may be held by a separate, more dominant film, leaving "People We Meet on Vacation" in a clear secondary position based on available viewership data and trend analysis from the preceding days.
The primary risk to this high-confidence prediction is an unexpected surge from a competing film. A dark horse candidate, such as a legacy action title or a newly added comedy that goes viral in a key region, could accumulate views rapidly in the final days of the measurement period. The market resolves based on Netflix's official data update on Tuesday, January 20, 2026. Any significant shift would likely occur before that, but the thin trading volume of only $3,000 across related markets means the current 85% price is more susceptible to sharp moves if new viewership patterns emerge over the weekend.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on forecasting which film will rank as the second most-watched English-language movie globally on Netflix during a specific weekly measurement period ending in January 2026. The resolution is based on the official weekly 'Global Top 10 Movies (English)' list published by Netflix on its Top 10 website, a public-facing data hub the company launched in 2021 to provide transparency into viewing trends. The list ranks titles based on total hours viewed by subscribers worldwide during a Monday-to-Sunday window, with the data update typically occurring the following Tuesday. This specific market centers on the update scheduled for Tuesday, January 20, 2026, reflecting viewership from January 12 to January 18, 2026. People are interested in this topic because the Netflix Top 10 has become a significant cultural and commercial barometer, influencing industry decisions, talent negotiations, and public conversation about what content resonates globally. Predicting its rankings involves analyzing a complex mix of factors including new release schedules, marketing campaigns, star power, critical reception, and the unpredictable nature of viral word-of-mouth. The competition for the #2 spot is particularly intriguing as it often involves a close race between a reigning champion beginning to decline and a surging new contender, offering a snapshot of shifting audience preferences.
The context for this prediction market is rooted in Netflix's transformation from a DVD-by-mail service to a data-driven streaming giant and its evolving relationship with transparency. For years, Netflix was famously secretive about viewership numbers, sharing only selective, often cherry-picked data. This changed in November 2021 when the company launched its public Top 10 site, publishing weekly ranked lists for films and TV in over 90 countries, plus global aggregates. This move was widely seen as an attempt to build trust with creators, investors, and the industry by providing a consistent, if limited, metric. The methodology has remained consistent: rankings are based on total hours viewed by subscribers in a given region during a Monday-to-Sunday window. Historically, the #1 spot on the global film list has been dominated by major Netflix original releases like 'Red Notice' (2021), 'The Gray Man' (2022), and 'Murder Mystery 2' (2023), which often debut with over 100 million hours viewed in their first week. The race for subsequent positions, however, is more dynamic. It frequently features a mix of other new originals, recently licensed theatrical hits entering their streaming window, and older catalog titles experiencing a resurgence due to social media trends or its inclusion in a popular playlist. Past data shows that films often peak in their first or second week of availability before gradually declining, making the timing of a new release crucial for capturing a top spot in any given week.
The ranking on Netflix's Global Top 10 is more than a popularity contest, it is a powerful economic and cultural signal. For the industry, these numbers directly influence future greenlight decisions, talent compensation packages often tied to performance bonuses, and the valuation of intellectual property. A film consistently ranking in the top spots demonstrates proven audience demand, which can justify sequels, spin-offs, or franchising efforts, as seen with the 'Murder Mystery' and 'The Mother' franchises. For competitors like Disney+, Max, and Prime Video, the Top 10 provides a public benchmark against which to measure their own performance and strategize their content investments. Culturally, the list shapes the zeitgeist, determining which films become topics of global conversation on social media and influencing what is considered a 'hit' in the streaming era, where traditional box office metrics no longer apply. This public ranking also creates a new form of leverage for talent and their representatives in negotiations, as they can point to concrete, publicly-available data to argue for better deals on future projects.
As of late 2024, Netflix continues to dominate the global streaming landscape in terms of subscriber scale and cultural impact. The weekly publication of the Top 10 lists remains a staple, though the company has begun supplementing it with semi-annual 'What We Watched' reports offering more comprehensive data. The film slate for 2025 and early 2026 is in active development and production, with major projects likely featuring A-list talent and franchise potential. The competitive landscape for viewer attention has intensified, with other streamers and traditional theatrical releases all vying for a share. The specific films that will be available on the service in January 2026 are not yet publicly confirmed, making predictions dependent on analyzing production timelines, licensing deal patterns, and Netflix's historical release calendar.
Netflix calculates the total number of hours that subscribers globally watched a given title during the Monday-to-Sunday measurement window. This is a raw tally of hours streamed, not a unique viewer count. The company only counts a view after a subscriber has watched at least two minutes of a title, which it considers long enough to indicate intentional choice.
No. The 'Global Top 10 Movies (English)' list, which this market resolves on, is specifically for English-language films. Netflix publishes separate non-English film lists. A film primarily in another language, even if produced by Netflix, would not be eligible for this particular ranking.
According to the market description, if the official update on top10.netflix.com does not occur by January 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve as 'Invalid.' This contingency accounts for potential technical delays or changes in Netflix's reporting schedule.
Yes, significantly. Netflix uses its homepage algorithm, notification pushes, and email campaigns to heavily promote its original films and key licensed content. This centralized promotion gives Netflix-originated titles a substantial advantage in driving initial viewership, which is critical for securing a high rank in the first week after release.
Frequently. Major theatrical releases from studios like Sony and Universal, which license films to Netflix after their premium video-on-demand and other streaming windows, often debut at #1 on the global chart. For example, 'Spider-Man: No Way Home' and 'Jurassic World Dominion' both topped the charts upon their Netflix arrivals, demonstrating the power of pre-existing brand awareness.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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6 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 85% |
 | Poly | 9% |
 | Poly | 6% |
 | Poly | 4% |
 | Poly | 4% |
 | Poly | 1% |
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