Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Total Volume

$55.25K

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Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Vol

$55.25K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $55.25K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $55.25K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027?	Kalshi	14%
Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before December 1, 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

14%

Top Probability

$55.25K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before January 1, 2027 If a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague in the United States is officially reported by a Source Agency after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. The disease is human pneumonic plague specifically. Bubonic or septicemic plague without pneumonic involvement, unspecified plague, and animal cases do not qualify. X case must be confirmed in the United States; a U.S. citizen diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed and reported

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before January 1, 2027

If a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague in the United States is officially reported by a Source Agency after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. The disease is human pneumonic plague specifically. Bubonic or septicemic plague without pneumonic involvement, unspecified plague, and animal cases do not qualify. X case must be confirmed in the United States; a U.S. citizen diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed and reported 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague in the United States is officially reported by a Source Agency after Issuance and before November 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The disease is human pneumonic plague specifically. Bubonic or septicemic plague without pneumoni"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $55.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $19.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $16.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before December 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $19.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Volume$55.25K

Markets3

3 of 3

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KALSHI

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027?

If a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague in the United States is officially reported by a Source Agency after Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The disease is human pneumonic plague specifically. Bubonic or septicemic plague without pneumonic

KALSHI

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before December 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before December 1, 2026?

If a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague in the United States is officially reported by a Source Agency after Issuance and before December 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The disease is human pneumonic plague specifically. Bubonic or septicemic plague without pneumoni

KALSHI

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026?

If a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague in the United States is officially reported by a Source Agency after Issuance and before November 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The disease is human pneumonic plague specifically. Bubonic or septicemic plague without pneumoni

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9¢

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Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

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Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Markets (3)

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027?

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027?

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before December 1, 2026?

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before December 1, 2026?

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026?

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026?

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Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027?

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027?

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before December 1, 2026?

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before December 1, 2026?

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026?

Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026?

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